This is very well put. Click to enlarge.

It is time to wrap up preparations.  Sandy still looks like a major threat and she is moving a little faster than originally anticipated.   Don't make this mistake, "we underestimated this one." Hurricane Sandy at 8:30am CDT with 75 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 951 mb. University of Wisconsin Coastal winds are coming up a bit faster than I expected with gusts to nearly 40 mph at Norfolk, VA and gusts in the 30's in eastern North Carolina and DelMarVa. Kitty Hawk had a gust of 45 mph recently. Current Rainfall AccuWeather regional radar shows the banding structure associated with Sandy causing light to moderate rains in coastal areas. Additional Rainfall Because some of the storm's rain has already fallen and because it is moving a little faster than originally forecast, the amounts don't look quite as impressive as earlier forecasts. However, these are more than sufficient to cause flooding in the areas with heavier rains. clic...

From The Wall Street Journal .

As I feared, the National Weather Service's decision not to issue tropical storm and hurricane warnings -- regardless of the intensity of Hurricane Sandy -- is already having unfortunate effects. The first was in NY earlier this evening. Here is NYC Mayor Bloomberg's statement: “Although we’re expecting a large surge of water, it is not expected to be a tropical storm or hurricane-type surge. With this storm, we’ll likely see a slow pileup of water rather than a sudden surge, which is what you would expect with a hurricane, and which we saw with Irene 14 months ago. “So it will be less dangerous – but make no mistake about it, there will be a lot of water and low-lying areas will experience flooding. The City’s Departments of Transportation and Environmental Protection will be deployed throughout the city to address flooding conditions. "So it will be less dangerous." We don't know that to be the case. The latest barometric pressure associated with San...

The National Weather Service's strategy of sending up extra weather balloons has worked. The models have pretty well clustered on a corridor for Sandy's center. "Spaghetti Chart" showing the various models' path of Hurricane Sandy Very heavy rains will be moving inland with Hurricane Sandy. Areas with five or more inches of rain will likely see river flooding. Areas with heavier rain may see major flooding. All of the models show a major storm with damaging winds. Trees will topple -- and in areas with heavy rains -- there will be considerable tree uprooting and power line damage. Here is the GFS model at six hour intervals. Keep in mind the system may come inland a little north or south of this path, so focus on the pattern rather than exact locations. The 937 millibar center would be an all-time record low barometric pressure. This forecast is valid at 8pm EDT Monday evening. Consider red as strong enough winds to cause power failures. Extreme ...

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I've checked the latest computer models and wouldn't change anything I have posted today.  So, feel free to explore today's postings. My niece is getting married this evening, so this will be the last update until late this evening.

NOAA Experimental Forecast. Hat Tip, Bob Ryan. Click to enlarge. This shows a storm surge of 6 to 8 ft. near the mouth of Delaware Bay. This does NOT include wave action or astronomical tide. The water in Chesapeake Bay is shown lowering .

I apologize for the confusion but here is the final word from Dennis Feltgen, head of public relations for the National Hurricane Center. Mike,  We will put something on our website and FB page soon to explain this.  But the bottom line is that a hurricane watch/warning for the coast cannot be issued if it is not a hurricane.  It has to be handled by the other NWS watch/warnings products -Dennis Thanks, Dennis! That said, I strongly disagree with this decision for the reasons stated earlier .  For the purposes of this blog, I will continue to refer to the swirl of clouds that is Hurricane Sandy as Hurricane Sandy. Addition:  Here is the problem in a nutshell. This was just (2:17pm CDT) cut and pasted from the NWS. Note the (brown) high wind watch inland. But, there is no high wind watch or warning for Long Island or NYC!!!   There is little QC or consistency between local NWS offices.

...and other storms, I've written a book on that topic. It is listed at Goodreads and has a 5-star rating at Amazon . Check it out!

Roger Pielke, Jr. has an insightful blog post pertaining to the potential damage for Hurricane Sandy. With the caveat that we are in meteorologically uncharted waters (i.e., we've never had a storm of this nature in the modern meteorological era), I'd like to offer some speculation that might be useful: Sandy may cause more than $100 billion in damage, more than Katrina.   You can refresh your memory about Katrina's damage here . The computer models that I trust are getting more and more in synch on a record storm. Last night's European model with a 944 mb center just before landfall. This morning's U.S. GFS with a 936 mb (!) center just before landfall. While the details are important to a given location, the overall message is nearly identical: This will be a tremendous storm.  If either of these model forecasts are exactly correct (that is still a big "if"), I expect the total damage (including loss to the U.S. economy) to be worse than...

This posting is incorrect. Final decision here . National Hurricane Center has changed its mind. They are going to continue with tropical storm and hurricane warnings. Very wise, decision Hurricane Center. Kudos.

Flooded LaGuardia Airport, November 25, 1950; Photo Queens Library via WeatherUnderground If a 1950 Nor'easter can flood LaGuardia, can Sandy? Could JFK be flooded? The answer may be "yes" based on some of the storm surge models I am seeing. I'm not attempting to be alarmist -- I am attempting to get your attention. With the worst-case storm intensity and location, this type of flooding is certainly possible. You'll see surge forecasts for NYC at the end of this posting . Here is an updated NOAA forecast, based on the newest (12Z Saturday) GFS model showing major flooding at Battery Park in Lower Manhattan. This forecast -- if exactly accurate -- jeopardizes the NYC subway system.

Update: 12:07pm Saturday. The National Weather Service has reversed its decision and will continue with hurricane and tropical storm warnings for Sandy. NWS is NOT going to issue hurricane warnings after all. Final info here . Two days ago, I wrote on this blog: The Meteorology . Over the next few days, you may be hearing terms like "cold core, warm core, baroclinic, hybrid,"etc. This is important to meteorologists but not important to you. For the purposes of this blog, the storm is "Hurricane Sandy" regardless of its temperature structure aloft. This morning, the National Hurricane Center stated, NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY.  Translated: We aren't going to issue hurricane watches and warnings for Hurricane...

That's Hurricane Sandy with the eye east of Cape Canaveral. Maximum sustained winds are 75 mph and the pressure is 960 millibars.  It is moving slightly east of due north. Because this is going to be a rather long post, I'm going to break it down by hazards to try to make it a little easier to follow. Location The center of the storm will likely come ashore in the area shaded in blue. However, the location of the center is much less important than in a more typical hurricane.  In the case of Sandy, the storm's winds will be hugely spread out. To illustrate, take a look at this forecast valid at 8pm EDT Monday from the European model. If you consider the red to be wind gusts strong enough to cause power lines to fall, there could be power failures from Richmond to Portland. Very strong winds for Wilmington, Philadelphia and into NYC are forecast. Now, I don't want you to take this position literally. It could be a little farther north or south. The poi...