The 1:30pm regional radar shows freezing rain moving into Arkansas south of I-40. The ice has caused terrible road conditions when it was in Oklahoma. There is a second oval over eastern Oklahoma and central Arkansas. While there is ice in that area, it is forecast to turn to snow as the afternoon progresses.  The darker blue shades of radar correspond to heavier falling snow. The area outlined in blue (red arrows) is where the heaviest snow is expected to fall between now and 6pm CST. This corresponds well to ongoing forecasts.  I apologize for not having a forecast up. A number of unexpected things have occurred today and I do not believe I will be able to update the forecast this afternoon. Thank you for understanding. 

--- This Forecast Has Been Updated  --- You Will Find the New Forecast Here After a quick look at the new data this evening, I believe the forecast is still good. There may be light amounts of freezing rain in north central Texas as far south as Waco. It will not be enough to cause power outages but -- if it occurs -- it will make roads very slick.  The snow amount forecasts haven't changed. I believe DFW will receive 1-3" with heavier amounts as you go northeast. I-30 will become a mess for its entire route.  --- original forecast still valid --- Here are the latest NWS winter weather warnings and watches as of 3:15pm Note: the white "hole" in southwest Texas will be filled in with a purple winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches of snow.  Color codes: Pink = winter storm warning  Dark green = winter storm watch Purple = winter weather advisory  Bright green = ongoing flood warning  Dark blue and bright turquoise = freeze warnings.  As expected, t...

Note to readers at 11:45pm Wednesday, January 1: after a quick look at this evening's data and models, the forecast below still looks good.   This is important information for anyone traveling the next few days. Please factor it into your plans.  Winter Storm #1 Above is a close-up of snowfall amounts in the Midwest. East of the Rockies, the snow will begin over Nebraska tonight.  The snow will spread east into Iowa tomorrow (Thursday) morning and then farther east. Heavier amounts are likely over the Appalachians.  Weekend  Storm #2, Major Storm Forecast Above is the snapshot forecast weather map for 6am Sunday. A strong low pressure center is forecast to be over southeast Kansas with severe thunderstorms possible during the day over the south central U.S. as well as freezing rain and sleet in the purple area and heavy snow in the dark blue area. The models are showing wind gusts of 30mph or even stronger in the icing area of central and northeast Kansas which ...

12:35pm Update: While this forecast is still valid,  there is a newer forecast here . A major winter storm is likely in the central U.S. this weekend. Here are some details.  Please take this into account if you are going to travel this weekend. 6am Saturday to 6am Sunday This storm will be moving from northwest to southeast. Most all of this precipitation will be in the form of snow with some sleet possible in Missouri. Not shown on the map is the potential for some freezing rain developing in Kansas Saturday night. 6am Sunday to 6am Monday I have modified this map to pull the potential for freezing rain and/or moderate to heavy snow farther south into Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Some sleet or freezing rain is possible over the southwest third of Missouri. In the rest of the area, moderate to heavy snow is likely.  This storm has the potential to significantly disrupt airline travel at Chicago and, possibly, Detroit.  Below are forecast temperatures (not wind chil...

Unfortunately, the relatively mild winter enjoyed by much of the nation is going to end except in the Pacific Coast states. Here is some information for planning purposes: Temperatures for 6am Wednesday Temperatures for 6am Saturday There is a good chance of freezing rain and/or snow in the central United States toward the weekend.  6am Saturday to 6am Sunday Below are statistical maps that are informed by the computer models indicating where there are relatively high probabilites of 4" or more of snow or  .25" or more of freezing rain.  6am Sunday to 6am Monday If you are planning to drive significant distances or fly this weekend, it will be important to factor this winter storm into your plans.  Of course, I will begin regular updates starting tomorrow. Please check back!

Here are the National Weather Service warnings, et cetera. Here are the color codes: Dark green = flood watch. Please see here for more info on the flood threat.  Purple = winter weather advisory. For New York and Pennsylvania, the primary issue is snow; elsewhere freezing rain/drizzle. Slick roads are the primary threat.  Deep green (High Plains) = freezing fog advisory which could cause extremely slick roads.  Gray = dense fog advisory. Pale green are hydrological statements, none are of great importance.  DFW International Airport has average 20 minute delays due to low clouds. Those delays may worsen during the evening.  Freezing rain forecast amounts the next 36 hours.  Light green is a trace to a tenth of an inch. The darker green in one-tenth to .25 inches. 

Ice Storm Warning Extended into the Missouri Ozarks National Weather Service warnings as of 10:53pm.  Color codes: Deep purple = ice storm warning. Pink = winter storm warning for ice (lesser threat than the deep purple). Purple = winter weather advisory for freezing rain or freezing drizzle (lesser condition). Green = freezing fog (slippery roads may develop). Gray = fog advisory Ignore the pale tan. An ice storm warning not only means that roads will be nearly impassible but that there is a chance of power outages.  11:15pm: the Oklahoma City airport is closed due to icing. Flights are being diverted to other airports.  Regional Radar at 11:10pm. The precipitation is moving northeast. The heaviest freezing rain is the darker salmon color from the southern Flint Hills of Kansas into eastern Oklahoma. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly in the Missouri and Arkansas Ozarks the next three hours.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain from 9pm this evening until 1pm Monda...

Note: An Updated Forecast is Available HERE Freezing Rain The National Weather Service has now issued winter weather advisories, two warnings and a watch. It may be a bit too large but, when it comes to freezing rain and slick roads, caution is usually the better course of action.  Here's a color code: Deep purple is an ice storm warning; serious condition where power outages are possible. Pink is a winter storm warning for significant icing. Deep green is a winter storm watch. I don't know why this is still a watch. If I were on the forecast desk I would have a winter storm warning for icing.  Dark blue is a winter weather advisory, a lesser condition, for icing.  Here is a view of the entire watch/warning/advisory area. The small area of green in Illinois is for flooding and, in Nebraska, for snow.  Here is a forecast of freezing rain amounts; totals to 6am Tuesday.  Color codes: Yellow is 0.25 to 0.50 inches. Power outages may occur in this areas. Deep blue i...

10:20pm Note: This forecast is still valid.  Below, you will find my forecast of the location of freezing rain beginning about this time tomorrow and continuing into Monday morning. But, oddly, the National Weather Service (NWS) doesn't seem to have a sense of urgency about telling people.  My forecast from 12:45pm (scroll down) is unchanged.  As of 4:15pm, a NWS winter storm watch is out for parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas (see below) but that's it.  My first thought was they have a different opinion of the evolving weather than I. So, I started looking at the NWS forecaster discussions at Oklahoma City (late and unavailable) and Springfield, MO.  The latter says: A "60 to 90% chance of hazardous road conditions" and they don't feel a winter storm watch or advisory is warranted? Especially since it is the weekend, people need time to make alternative plans. Worse, an index of likelihood of ice-related power outages in the reason is non-zero in that part of the O...

This is my latest forecast as to where freezing rain will began Sunday afternoon (Texas) and spread northeast Sunday night. The forecast extends to 10am Monday. The heaviest amounts will likely be over the Ozarks.   I'm surprised there are no winter weather advisories, watches, or warnings from the National Weather Service. The pale blue and purple are cold temperature advisories and warnings. The pale green in southeast Colorado is due to ice jam flooding. 

Color code: Freezing rain possible.  Freezing rain likely. Forecast Valid: 4pm Sunday to 4pm Monday This updated freezing rain forecast has lessened the chance of ice in north central Texas, including the Metroplex as it has been moved from the "likely" to "possible" category north of I-20. The latest guidance indicates there could be some isolated power outages. It is too soon to outline where they might be. The entire area in red will have difficult driving conditions Sunday night and Monday morning.  Please check back for additional updates tomorrow. 

Please note: this forecast has been updated as of 5:10pm. Scroll up for the latest forecasts. -- original story -- This preliminary  forecast pertaining to freezing rain is valid from 4pm Sunday until 6am Monday morning. It is possible freezing will continue after sunrise on Monday and that it may fall in areas beyond what are indicated on the map. Freezing rain is likely . Freezing rain is possible .  There will almost certainly be sufficient freezing rain to cause slick roads. I am going to closely monitor this situation as there is a possibility of sufficient freezing rain, in at least scattered areas, to cause power outages.   Update, 1:45pm Friday:  A new version of a model that I trust has come in and it shows freezing rain (red) just starting to fall over north central Texas 4-6 pm Sunday. The area of freezing rail will grow and move north and east Sunday night.   

The area outlined in green will experience areas of freezing drills or very light freezing rain over the next three days, starting tomorrow morning. While amounts will not be heavy, they will likely be sufficient to cause slick areas on roads. 

Storm #1  Reminder: my criterion for "heavy snow" is 4" or more in 12 hours or less. Now Until 6pm Saturday Snowfall From Noon Saturday to Noon Monday There is also a chance of freezing rain in the Appalachians.   Storm #2 Snow outlook for Sunday through Tuesday Above is a very preliminary guesstimate of snow amounts for storm number two which will begin in the west (left) part of the map Sunday; and move across the rest of the area Monday and Tuesday.   The band of snow could, of course, turn out to be ~100 miles north or south of what is shown. In addition, a few areas may receive more than than indicated (this technique tends to smooth out the heaviest snow amounts).  I'll be able to get more specific as the snow event gets closer.

This is an Extremely Dangerous Winter Storm. Please Make Sure Friends and Family are Aware. As of 8:05pm, the forecasts look good. This is my last update for the night.  Latest NWS Storm Warnings as of 8:00pm Color Code: Orange is a blizzard warning. It includes much of I-80 and I-76 in Nebraska.  Pink is a winter storm warning for heavy snow. Dark green is a winter storm watch. Purple is a winter weather advisory. Note this has been extended south into central Kansas, thus it includes I-70 beginning at Salina and continuing west -- where it turns into a winter storm watch -- to Burlington, CO. Please do not  spend your Christmas or the day after in your car trapped by a giant snow drift or having slid off into a ditch from an icy highway.  NWS Experimental Winter Weather Impacts Index Freezing Rain for Tonight and Christmas Morning Blizzard Conditions Christmas Day and Wednesday Snowfalls As much as 20-22 inches may fall near the South Dakota-Nebraska border. The sn...