click to enlarge There was a 19' storm surge with Hurricane Michael that both exceeded official forecasts and set a record for the State of Florida. A storm surge of that nature is incredibly destructive. This is important not just because of the record but because some stated in the media that the actual storm surge was below  the forecast levels. It is important to remember that you can't believe what you first read about natural disasters. This isn't because the reporters are bad people but because: Few reporters are science majors and so don't understand the complexities of storm surges and hurricanes. Politicians (which reporters believe far too often in cases involving weather) can sometimes want to play things down ( not saying this happened in this case) for what I call "chamber of commerce" reasons.  It takes time for these surveys to occur. By the time the surveys are done, the reporters are often  gone. 

click to enlarge Please note that winds over 100 mph extended into southwest Georgia. ADDITION:  Some are reporting that the National Hurricane Center's peak winds, while plainly extremely destructive, may not have been as high as originally thought .

Ms. Sweat is writing about the inland areas of the Florida Panhandle.  Please read the above plea for help from ~2pm via Twitter. Hurricane Michael caused massive destruction that was, at first, underestimated by some.  Even though we donated to the Salvation Army's hurricane relief fund earlier this month, Kathleen and I just made another donation. Florence and Michael were monsters. If you are safe in your home enjoying football you are very blessed at the moment. So, please help the people who are struggling for survival from Hurricane Michael. To donate, please click here .

Hundreds, if not thousands, owe their lives  to  the science of  meteorology this morning. There is a very good case to be made that more than 3,000 would have been killed by Hurricane Michael absent weather science.  Since Hurricane Katrina, when former New Orleans mayor (now inmate) Ray Nagin blamed meteorologists for the huge death toll in Katrina --when weather science actually did superb job -- I have taken up the mantle of obtaining for meteorology the the respect it deserves. We are, by far, the most successful of the predictive sciences and thousands of lives are saved each year by our work. In spite of that, meteorology is often the "Rodney Dangerfield of Sciences" -- we get no respect . Consider the list below of the most intense hurricanes to strike the United States and the number of fatalities they produced. Labor Day Hurricane (1938), 423 deaths, quality of warnings: C-  Hurricane Camille (1969): 254 deaths, B+ warnings Michael, ...

The storm is moving NE and I have outlined the worst winds around the calm eye. Gusts of 150+ are likely thought out that area along with tornadoes. Storm surge is already severe around Mexico Beach.

Ginger Zee is a superb meteorologist and she doesn't exaggerate anything. I am a political conservative, as evidence. Meteorologists are not exaggerating Hurricane Michael! As proof, I just used Doppler radar to measure the winds and I came up with 166 mph. Hurricane Hunters show the central pressure has fallen even more. Michael is still strengthening! Doppler Winds: Measured at 8:48am CDT Coastline and cities at upper right.  The extreme winds in the eyewall are about 40 miles from the coast. It is probably too late to leave as trees will begin blocking roadways and you do not want to get caught in your car. If you are in a building, close every window and door. When the winds rise, hunker down in a bathroom or closet (really!).

Hurricane Michael on Radar at 8am CDT I've circled (from left) Pennsacola, Panama City, Apalachicola and Tallahasse Looking at the data this morning is making me literally sick to my stomach. Hurricane Michael will be the worst hurricane to ever strike the Florida Panhandle. Sustained winds are now 145 mph with higher gusts. They are expected to be 150 mph at landfall.  The radar just picked up the equivalent of a surface gust to 160 mph! Storm surge could be 15' in places. The combination of wind-driven water and the wind itself will be deadly to anyone in its path.  Here is a prediction of the wind swath.  There is a tornado watch in effect: Currently winds are gusting to about 32 mph at Panama City's airport. They will increase rapidly through the day.

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Hurricane Michael to "major hurricane" status. It now has winds of 120 mph sustained with a central pressure of 957mb. It is expected to intensify slightly more before landfall. Please rush your hurricane precautions to completion.  -- original 2:25p posting -- I'd like to be able to report good news but I am not able to. The satellite images (there is no Hurricane Hunter aircraft in the storm at this time) clearly show a storm continuing to organize. The 1:55p satellite image is below. The pressure currently is 965mb with sustained winds of 110mph. As of 2:08pm, there has been a burst of lightning ( +'s ) around the eye which is usually a sign of intensification. This occurred as I was writing this forecast.  There is no reason to move the predicted path as far as I can tell (see below) with, of course, the caveat that things could shift 20 miles or so either direction. Panama City appears to be especiall...

If you compare the 11:57am satellite image with the one below you will see that the eye has cleared out. I was looking at some of the Hurricane Hunter data and the storm continues to slowly intensify. Preparations for Michael should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm force winds will be reaching the coast late this evening. Things will only go downhill from there.