Saturday, August 19, 2017

Central Eclipse Zone Forecast

Because I have seen forecasts for other parts of the path of totality, here is the best forecast I have at this time for the Nebraska-western Missouri portion of the path of totality.
The above is the NWS's 3km model valid at 1pm CDT Monday. The path of totality is bordered by the red lines and the black oval is the area of totality at 1pm.

Most all of the computer models (there are multiple versions that cover this period of time) show quite a few clouds across the region. They are consistent that conditions will be better from Scottsbluff to the west. Otherwise, there will be leftover cirrus and cirrostratus clouds left over from thunderstorms in Colorado the night before. In Missouri, there will likely be some leftover clouds from thunderstorms in Kansas.

I would not make any relatively minor changes in plans because of this (e.g., Liberty, MO versus Excelsior Springs) because the model is not that good. This forecast will be updated in the morning.

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