How Did the Last Flash Flood Risk Forecast Work Out?

As you know, I try to go back and publicly validate my forecasts that are posted on my blog. On Friday, I published the flash flood risk forecast at right (below). At left is the amount of rain that actually fell.
please click to enlarge
On the map at left yellow equals 2.5 to 2.9 inches of rain which would be a reasonable threshold of flash flood risk. The red is 6 inches or more. East of Kansas City, nearly 9 inches fell.

So, this would be rated a successful forecast.


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