The NWS is forecasting the potential for violent tornadoes over southeast Nebraska and in a band from northeast into south central Kansas.  The possibility exists for tornadoes from Wisconsin to northwest Texas.  The area where the most violent tornadoes are forecast to occur is the area with bold diagonal hatches from southeast Nebraska, into extreme northwest Missouri and into south central Kansas.  The dashed hatching is where strong tornadoes are forecast to occur. In the red area, there is a high  risk of tornadoes In the yellow area, there is an enhanced risk of tornadoes. In the brown area, there is a significant risk of tornadoes.  If I lived in the highest risk area, I would prepare by making sure my car can be put in the garage and I would bring in lawn furniture. I'd also go to the ATM and get some extra cash, if possible.  Finally, make sure your storm shelter area is ready to go. Always wear shoes, have a couple of bottles of water and some dia...

[Originally Posted Wednesday, 14th] Looks like we are getting into another period where tornadoes will occur at various times over the next two weeks. Just a couple of reminders (please click to see both graphics).......

I have been in the forecast chair continuously since 8:30a Friday. I'm going to be now because Saturday will be an extremely dangerous tornado day.  There is an extreme risk of strong tornadoes in the purple area and a high risk of strong tornadoes in the red area from 7a Saturday to 8a Sunday.  Newest Tornado Watch: 1:45am Tornado Watch: 1:35am 8:06pm Overnight tornado watch until 3am.  8pm: Particularly Dangerous Situation! Rare "particularly dangerous situation" tornado watch issued for the overnight hours. Make sure yo have a way to be awakened if you receive a tornado warning.  7pm: 5pm: Meanwhile, father south, a tornado watch will likely be issued. This is where overnight tornadoes are a real danger in Louisiana, southeastern Arkansas and Mississippi.  4:55pm, tornado watch updated.  Please note what is forecast to occur: "Several strong  tornadoes, 90 mph thunderstorm-generated wind gusts, and hail to tennis ball size." I expect tornadoes after...

This is a really important forecast and I urge you to make your plans accordingly.  4pm Friday to 7am Saturday Above is the tornado forecast. Color code: Yellow, hatched = enhanced risk of strong tornadoes.  Brown, significant risk of tornadoes.  The tornado threat will begin in the late afternoon. Near and south of the pink line, there may be strong tornadoes during the night. It is vital to make sure you have at least two independent systems to awaken you if a tornado warning is issued. These can include: weather radio, phone app or StormWarn . Above is the forecast for damaging winds. Color code: Purple = high risk  of thunderstorm-generated winds of 75 mph or stronger. Red = enhanced risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Yellow hatched = significant risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Yellow = significant risk of 60 mph or stronger. Power outages are likely in the purple area and quite possible in the red. Please prepare for outages which ma...

This is a photo of homes under construction in Olathe, Kansas. Each of those upright structures is a tornado "safe room." I understand that new homes with walkout basements must also have them.  Well done, Olathe!

Just a reminder: Some years, we have a "second [tornado] season" in the autumn either via hurricanes or with strong weather systems crossing the nation. Reminder for tornado safety.

It looks like the first significant tornado situations of 2024 will develop the middle of next week.  While these are very  preliminary, the yellow areas are where tornadoes, large hail and/or damaging thunderstorm winds may occur. So, this means it is time to get your tornado safety planning completed. If you do not have a "safe room" or a  storm shelter , the safest place is in a basement under heavy furniture such as a pool table.  Rehearse  taking shelter there with your children. If you do not have a shelter or basement, then get into a bathroom or closet in the middle of the house. The theory is to put as many walls as possible between you and the tornado. Laying down in the bathtub is a good idea. Again, r ehearse  taking shelter there with your children.  Wherever your safe area may be, put in a couple of bottles of water, a pair of old shoes with good soles, and, if appropriate, a couple of diapers.  If you are in public, avoid buildings ...

There's little chance of a major tornado situation for the rest of the month of February.  However, once we get past February, both the statistical probability of tornadoes increases and, in this case, some long-range model data points to an above average March. That is why I would like to urge you to consider your tornado preparations.  Here are a few thoughts: If you do not have a "safe room" or a storm shelter , the safest place is in a basement under heavy furniture such as a pool table. Rehearse  taking shelter there with your children. If you do not have a shelter or basement, then get into a bathroom or closet in the middle of the house. The theory is to put as many walls as possible between you and the tornado. Laying down in the bathtub is a good idea. Again, r ehearse  taking shelter there with your children.  If you are in public, avoid buildings with large roofs without support poles. For example, look at the Joplin High School (below). Photo: ESPN T...

Pecos Hank is a storm chaser for whom I have a great deal of respect. He offers some safety advice as the 2024 tornado season approaches.  Click on "read more" to watch the video. And, by the way, I do not recommend storm chasing for non-meteorologists. 

Due to friction with the ground, wind speeds are lowest near the ground and increase with height. In tornadoes, the basement is best. If you don't have a basement, go to a bath or closet in the middle of the home on the lowest floor. In hurricanes, a basement is not as certain due to the possibility of flooding. It is probably better to shelter in the middle of the house and definitely away from windows. 

Why, if you don't have a basement, you should be in a bathroom or closet in the middle of the house when under a tornado warning.   The woman was sucked out of the building amidst all of the flying debris and other hazards. She is lucky to be alive.  This year is already more active than than any since 2020. Please make sure your family and friends follow the best procedures to secure their safety in tornado situations. 

I think this video will change your mind.  And, if you think it is a good idea to go outside to view a tornado, consider this: Once rain wraps around a tornado , it becomes invisible.  This tornado, which occurred this past Wednesday, killed two in Oklahoma.  Finally, in this screen capture from Pecos Hank , a reminder that if you don't have a tornado shelter or a basement, the place to shelter is in a small room (closet, bath) in the middle of the lowest floor of the house.  Finally, Dr. Craig Ceecee has assembled a list of public shelters. Go here and then zoom, and then click on the location of interest. It will provide with the exact street address. This is particularly useful for mobile home dwellers. A sample is below.  However, if you use a public shelter that is more than a short walk, you will need to allow extra time to arrive due to possible auto traffic in the area. If there is a tornado watch in effect and thunderstorms, go ahead and move to the pu...

I have two tornado outlooks I want to share with you so you can prepare. Friday and Friday Night As we have had a break in the tornadoes that were frequent in March and the first week of this month, it looks like we'll have a day with tornadoes possible in eastern Kansas, central and eastern Texas, and northeast and north central Texas, including the Metroplex.  At of this point, and this is quite preliminary, the greater chance of tornadoes will be in the red area marked "enhanced." There is a lesser, but still significant, risk in the orange area.  As for Saturday, it is too soon to make a forecast as yet.  Late April and May The product below is known to meteorologists as "the chiclets." It is a long range severe thunderstorm and tornado outlook that has been surprisingly good this season.  I'm not going to try to decipher this for non-meteorologists but it suffices to say that the period from April 25 to May 25 (the end of the forecast period) -- if this...

 With the potential of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the Kansas City area yesterday, this sign was next to the check-in desk. What a wonderful idea! The name of the county was presented for their guests along with the Zip Code needed for any apps.

The morning models are almost finished coming in. I'll be looking them over along with NWS SPC's forecasts and will post an update to the tornado risk tomorrow by 1:15 or so. However,  there is enough data from last night and today to emphasize that we are in a very active wether pattern conductive to spring tornadoes. Now, is the time to make plans. Especially.... If you live in a mobile home, make arrangements to shelter with someone in a conventional home or a nearby public shelter.  Get a programmable weather radio. Turn on FCC's Wireless Emergency Alerts on your smartphone (bottom of "notifications" on an iPhone).  Subscribe to StormWarn . Sirens are great outdoors but you cannot count on hearing them indoors and you certainly cannot count on them awakening you.  One additional thought: If you want a portable generator, get one now. Make sure you read the instructions and follow them. There are far too many deaths from carbon monoxide poisoning after major to...

Basehunters Unfortunately, it looks like we will see tornadoes -- some violent -- from Texas into the South Monday into Wednesday. Overnight  tornadoes are likely Monday night and throughout the day into Tuesday night. It is critical that you be prepared to receive tornado warnings from multiple sources.  I offer this advice for those in Texas and the South the next 72 hours and for everyone for this tornado season.  Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) These are available from your smartphone. While they sometimes suffer from reliability issues (thus the reason for use of multiple sources), they have the advantage of being able to awaken you during the night if you place your smartphone next to your bed.  If you haven't already activated WEA, here's how to do it for an iPhone.  1. Go to "Settings" and Scroll Down to Notifications. 2. After tapping "Notifications" scroll all the way down to "Emergency Alerts." Turn them On.  Other Warning Sources There ...

A bit of news thanks to KMOV-TV in St. Louis . Amazon is hiring two meteorologists per their job board.  This is the result of a tornado causing fatal injuries at their Edwardsville, Illinois, facility December 10. A nighttime tornado struck (below), killing six. According to the KMOV story, Amazon is going to hire a meteorologist and a chief meteorologist. That's fine if they believe it is what will work for them. But, can two people cover facilities in almost every city of any size, across numerous time zones, and with different local climatologies? I am retired from the day-to-day forecasting business but am still active in the field. We can provide objective guidance to businesses attempting to make decisions in a field unfamiliar to their industry. Typical questions can include the decision to hire your own meteorologists or outsource to a commercial weather company, mission-critical communications, safety plans, and other vital safety decisions.  Contact us for more inf...