Girls evacuating during at the beginning of the flood from  cabins to the Rec Hall.  Some sad news out of Texas: Camp Mystic, the Christian girls camp along the Guadalupe River in Texas since 1926, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy . That means they are going to ask a court to deal with their debts with hope of reopening at some point.  Of course, Mystic was the camp where 28 girls and adults perished during the extreme flash flood the morning of July 4, 2025. The State of Texas has found the planning for flash floods, especially since the camp was right next to a river known for flooding, was wholly inadequate. The report of the Texas Senate was released yesterday and it is here . Given the nature of Chapter 11, it is likely the owners of the camp will lose their equity and the camp may be sold to others. Whether anyone will come forward is unknown.  While the owners of the camp deserve a great deal of criticism for the lack of meteorological preparedness (based o...

It is terribly unfortunate the emergency manager(s) made the decision to sound the tornado sirens in the City of Kansas City.  My daughter was visiting a friend south of downtown KC and she let me know the sirens were going off. Where was the tornado? Twenty-five miles to the northeast with the tornado was moving away  from Kansas City! This is 1960's siren philosophy, "tornadoes are unpredictable so if we are going to sound the sirens in any part of the county, we'll sound them over the entire  county!" A report after the Joplin Tornado found the over-use of their tornado sirens was a factor as to why so many died.  Independence is an east suburb of Kansas City. This is ridiculous. It hurts the credibility of the warning system. It needs to stop!

This is a weather event for which preparations are absolutely necessary: ice storm, heavy snow, and prolonged extreme cold.  2014 South Carolina ice storm Please note: freezing rain (glaze ice) is forecast to fall in significant amounts at the airline hubs in Dallas, Atlanta, Charlotte with significant snow in Washington D.C. If you are planning to fly to those cities (or others in the winter storms maps) I would plan to arrive Friday morning or before or  would get on the phone to reservations and re-route around those hubs. Otherwise, the possibility exists of being stranded for days. Special update regarding the Hurricane Hunter's role in this serious storm at the bottom. Storm Timing This is a forecast radar for 4am Friday as the storm is getting started. Over Arkansas to the Tennessee River the precipitation may still be aloft and not actually begin for a few more hours.  Winter Storm Watches It is rare winter storm watches are issued more than 48 hours in advance bu...

The number of emergency management issues during the July 4 Texas flash floods were legion.  As a result, Texas Senator Charles Perry has introduced a bill reforming Texas' emergency management . The bill seems to be a real step forward. I would also add the following to the legislation: Each of the three people in line to be the emergency management leader in a major situation, as defined in the bill, must  have a tone alert weather radio with a battery backup and  an app that will transmit storm warnings for the EM's location.  Each of the three persons must attend the yearly National Weather Service spring training sessions. An equivalent commercial class(es) would be acceptable.  If a EM is ill or on vacation, they must  notify the other two.  Other states should insure they're in conformity to the principles in the proposed legislation. 

I admit, this blog has been pretty downbeat since the morning of July 4 and the horrific Texas Hill Country Flood. It has been necessary to, in our small way, to figure out when wrong and help prevent it from recurring.  Now: how about some absolutely wonderful news? Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. has published a remarkable study demonstrating the first six months of 2024 had the lowest number of weather-related deaths due to extreme conditions than any other first six months in recorded human history.  Before anyone jumps to conclusions about "climate denial" or related thoughts: Roger is a Democrat who has said he voted for Harris in November and also said, when President Biden dropped out, he supported Gretchen Whitmer to be the D nominee for President of the United States.  He wrote Sunday on his Substack, The Honest Broker: His study is  here .  While we have had the Texas and other floods that have produced deaths and other weather-caused fatalities since July 1 --...

St. Louis is no stranger to major tornadoes and the deaths they can produce. It is the metropolitan area where the most tornado-related fatalities have occurred (Based on an AI search, more than 420). Friday, an EF-3 intensity tornado occurred in St. Louis and then moved across the Mississippi River into Illinois. Five were killed in St. Louis, 38 injured, and an estimated $1.6 billion in damage occurred. The tornado was a mile wide in places.  As we have been reporting for nearly 15 years, major issues have developed in the National Weather Service's (NWS) tornado warning program. Unfortunately, some of those issues occurred again Friday. There were also serious issues with local emergency management.  Unlike other nations, the U.S. does not have a National Disaster Review Board (modeled after the hugely successful National Transportation Safety Board) which would be able to do a comprehensive report. So, I am providing this more limited report in hopes that lesson...

The red arrows represent the range of where I forecast landfall of Beryl's center.  I now believe the entire Texas Gulf Coast is in play as to landfall. I was leaning toward that change in this forecast update. The arrival of the 18Z European Model forecast sealed it.  Wind Speed Forecast: if Beryl strikes near or south of Corpus Christi, wind speeds will be around 85-90 mph. If the storm strikes north of Corpus, wind speeds could be in the 90-100 mph range.  Tbe National Hurricane Center's Hurricane Watch is shown in pink along the central and southern Texas coast. I believe they will have to extend the watch farther north in later advisories.  The flood forecast is here . There will also be a storm surge near and north of where the center makes landfall. Finally, there will be a few tornadoes.  I will update this forecast again Saturday morning 

May of 2024 had the 4th most (preliminary) tornadoes of any May since 1950. April and May, combined, had the second most.  Trying to keep up with all of this, for meteorologists, meant quite a few 15 hour days. This means meteorologists with the National Weather Service, television stations and commercial meteorologists. Combine the work of meteorologists with storm spotters/chasers and emergency managers and they make up America's storm warning system. They deserve everyone's appreciation.  

Saturday evening, in the Flint Hills of Kansas, was the stuff of every meteorologist's nightmares.  Picture: Ten thousand people in open rangeland with a tornadic thunderstorm, that also contained golfball-sized hail, and no way to escape or shelter in time as a shelf cloud (the leading edge of wind, rain and hail) approached from the north.  Photo by Paul Attwater The event is the wonderful Symphony in the Flint Hills . One of its special charms is that it occurs in the middle of nowhere -- amongst nature and cattle drives. But, that is also its unique danger: how do you evacuate ten thousand people in a short period of time? The tornado missed the site, but not by much. Below is a map showing the rotation track (pink arrow) with the blue color almost certainly indicating a tornado on the ground. The site is "S." Friends described their cars rocking in 60+mph winds as the hail came down. Some said they were "terrified." Clearly, event organizers waited too long...

An Investigative Report © 2021 Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC Since Friday's horrific tornado outbreak, a great deal of criticism has been leveled at the management of the candle factory owned by the Mayfield Consumer Products Company (MCPC). Criticism is warranted because sheltering should be carried out whenever a tornado warning is issued for a given location.  But there is more to the story -- information that may help understand the thought process behind the decision not to shelter, or not to fully shelter, Friday evening when the violent EF-4 intensity tornado approached (I'm relying on the media on this topic). This was yet another situation demonstrating the urgent need to reform of the National Weather Service (NWS) and emergency management (EM) tornado warning processes across the nation. For those who are new to this blog, two of many other examples are here and here .  In 2005, the NWS switched from using counties for tornado warnings to polygons that project the pa...