(Updated) Seven Day Storm Outlook

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After a quiet weather pattern at the end of December, things will be changing dramatically the next seven days with:
  • Tornadoes
  • Flooding
  • Heavy Snow
Let's take things one threat at a time.  

Flooding
While parts of the Southeast are very dry,
Red and brown = very dry
the area from Georgia to North Carolina, where more than five inches (orange) are forecast to fall, may see significant flooding, especially if a third storm forecast beyond the 9th, produces additional heavy rain.
Note the heavy (for January) precipitation forecast from southeast Colorado, across Kansas and the Ozarks and into the Midwest. Much of that may fall as heavy snow. See below. 

Tornadoes
This is preliminary outlook as to where tornadoes and severe thunderstorms may occur (yellow) Monday and Monday night. While it is very likely the threat may shift a bit as Monday approaches, even though it is January, you may wish to check your tornado preparations for 2024. 

Heavy Snow 
The Sierra is going to experience heavy snow. The NWS is forecasting travel problems over the Sierra from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night.  
winter storm "effects" map
While there will be heavy snow over the higher elevations of the West, 
there will be an area of significant or heavy snow (I define heavy snow at 4" or more in 12 hours or less) from the central High Plains extending into the Low Plains by late Friday evening. 
The zone of snow could shift north or south a little

The probability of heavy snow decreases on Saturday.

The probability of 4" or more goes up significantly in the Northeast on Sunday.
The heavy snow threat will move northeast into the Boston - Maine coast area. 

The next storm in the series will bring heavy snow to the higher elevations of the Southwest Sunday.

And, finally, storm #2 is forecast to cause heavy snow in the central Great Plains. However, keep in mind this area may shift north or south significantly from this preliminary forecast. 
Again, I usually do not attempt to make snow and forecasts of other types of extreme weather this far ahead. But, because the tornado and flood threats are out-of-season and quite different form the quiet period we've had, I wish to give everyone a "heads up."

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