The Milwaukee Brewers won game 1 of the World Series last night. It was a thrilling, close game with a final score of 3-2 over the Rays.  I can just hear Bob Uecker up in Heaven (a/k/a, "the front row" ) saying, " Ya know [Saint] Pete, the team paid me a $50,000 bonus for this game. All I had to do is not come within 5 miles of the stadium!" Also, there was a faint sound I heard during last night's 5th inning. I think it was Bob shouting, He missed the tag, he missed the tag!

Alan Gerard is a former NWS forecasters and manager as well as a retired NOAA manager. Regarding the warning mess, today he wrote this essay . Highly recommended!   From Matthew Cappucci, a well-known Washington, DC meteorologist: More and more, I believe the NWS will "fix" this by setting up a National Storm Warning  Center (not to be confused with their Storm Prediction  Center). The problem is that, with civil service hiring rules, there is absolutely no guarantee that expert tornado warning meteorologists will be hired for the job.  The NWS desperately needs to seek outside expertise before embarking on yet another "reorganization" and it needs to take that advice seriously. 

The past 2 days have seen a major shift in the way the National Weather Service’s (NWS) storm warning services in general, and tornado warnings in particular, are viewed by many in the meteorological community as well by members of the media, emergency management, and the public. The usual NWS apologists seem to be changing their minds after the incredibly bad warning services provided to the Southwest .  The sentence should read, "Not even a severe thunderstorm warning???" The radar image on the right shows an impressive amount of lofted debris. People were injured. There was considerable destruction. Even destructive tornadoes went without warning, and warnings were issued on thunderstorms that had zero change of producing a tornado (including warnings based on hail spikes and other radar artifacts that falsely indicate rotation). Radar, in a New Mexico case, showed tornadic lofted debris in progress but no tornado warning! The Arizona town of  Overgaard  had zero warni...

After tornadoes in Arizona yesterday, the threat has shifted a bit to the southeast. Remember: a tornado watch  means tornadoes are possible and you should monitor the weather. A tornado warning means one is imminent and safety measures should be taken. Large hail is also possible.  Note: Because of previous obligations, I am not able to issue independent tornado warnings today. 

-- Updated Thursday morning with information about injuries -- We have written, over and over, about the National Weather Service's increasing inability to issue timely and accurate tornado warnings for the United States. This morning's hapless effort illustrates why we need a National Disaster Review Board and why we need a change of emphasis and maybe leadership at NWS/NOAA.  The news media says this is a confirmed tornado in central Arizona. There are other reports of a tornado(es) touching down but they are unconfirmed.  Here is a rundown of this mess, all times local Arizona time (MST): 7:03a, I tweeted a forecast of tornadoes in central Arizona and a link to the blog post below .  7:23a, I sent a note to the NWS offices in Flagstaff and Phoenix requesting, given the tornado threat, they put their radars into a tornado mode with more frequent updates. They did not. Four minute intervals is too infrequent when tornadoes threaten. I continued to send warning info to ...

We need to mitigate the warming of our atmosphere. It is best done through nuclear and, especially, next-generation nuclear. But the prophets of immediate doom are simply wrong. 

In addition to tornadoes, 70 mph thunderstorm-generated wind gusts and tennis ball-sized hail are forecast to occur.  --- original forecast still valid --- The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes and also very large hail. When you hear thunderstorm or the sky appears threatening, head inside and stay away from windows.