I'm working on the latest forecast for today and Saturday's tornado and severe thunderstorm risks.  Severe thunderstorms continue in southeast Oklahoma. 

As predicted (see below), a cluster of thunderstorms will develop over this area and will move northeast during the night. This watch is in effect until 4am Saturday My detailed forecast is below.  Through Tonight There is an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes in western Kansas (details below) after 2pm and the risk will last until around 1am. There is an enhanced risk of tornadoes in northwest Texas and southern Oklahoma after 9pm and continuing overnight. They are not likely to be strong (of course, all tornadoes are dangerous). The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. I have expanded on the Kansas forecast (2pm until 1am) below: The hatched area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. The red area has a high risk of a strong tornado. Apologies for my lack of artistic ability. I have extended the enhanced tornado area a bit farther to the east and, especially, northeast near the predicted location of the warm front.  I will have updates this afternoon and t...

Friday and Friday Night This is the forecast for all day Friday as until about 2am Saturday. Here is the color code: Yellow, hatched has an enhanced  risk of strong tornadoes.  ?  = some possibility of having to upgrade the risk in the 4-state area. The upper air indications plus a couple of the models indicate that we may have to elevate the risk in that area. The entire brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Saturday and Saturday Night Here is my forecast for Saturday.  The red area has (on my 4-point scale) a high risk of tornadoes. The orange area has an enhanced risk and the yellow area has a significant risk. While it doesn't seem like it, 48-hours is a long time in tornado forecasting, so this may have to be modified. However, if you live in the areas outlined, please check back with this blog for later forecasts and with local weather information on Saturday. I do frequent updates on Twitter @usweatherexpert. Please follow me for additional upd...

This is a situation where people in the areas of the forecasts should closely monitor the weather. Please make sure friends and relatives are aware of the risks -- especially on Saturday. More below on Saturday's storms.   Thursday and Thursday Night The brown area has a significant risk. The area of yellow hatching has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes. The red area has an even higher risk. Thunderstorms will likely form around mid-afternoon with the higher tornado threat from 6 to 10pm.  Friday and Friday Night The yellow area has a significant risk of tornadoes and/or severe thunderstorms. There is an enhanced  risk of tornadoes in the red area. The hatching is where giant hail (2' or large is forecast to fall). Especially if you live in the red area, keep an eye on the weather Friday. Saturday and Saturday Night I have a bad feeling about Saturday. The first map is SPC's entire forecast area. The yellow is where there is a significant chance of tornadoes/large hai...

Here is the rainfall for the past 48 hours ending at 10am. Even though much of the central United States  The bright orange area are 5 to 7 inch forecasts over the next five days. While much of the area needs rain, that might be too much, too fast. 

The story is here . The clock is ticking. When the soil temperature reaches 65°F, here they come! The map of where the "flying saltshakers of death [and noise!]" is below. Notice, Kansas isn't affected. If you want to get away (I wouldn't blame you), you can come to Wichita and we will entertain you with the River Festival and all of its musical groups (May 31 - June 8) and our first-ever Elsewhere Fest (June 21 and 22) with 70 musical acts. June 8 is also the date of the amazing Symphony in the Flint Hills . When I've attended, I've met people from Florida, California and from all over the nation!  In between acts, you can take in our two water parks (keep cool!), take the kids to Exploration Place , or the Cosmosphere -- generally believed to be the 2nd best space museum in the USA. Near the Cosmosphere is Stratica -- which is an amazing underground cave (see here ).  The Australian travel writers were highly impressed with their visit. Come and visit an...

Thursday and Thursday Night Forecast The yellow area has a significant risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms (large hail and damaging thunderstorm-generated winds). The orange, hatched area is where there is an enhanced risk  giant hail and tornadoes are more likely. The red oval is where I believe there is a higher risk of tornadoes, especially Thursday evening.  Update:  The NWS has updated their forecast for Thursday and it is below.  Their red area is very similar to my orange area. However, they pull their higher risk area to include Hutchinson and Pratt and it is close to Wichita. Where you see red + hatching in their forecast there is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes and  hail 2-3" in diameter. Elsewhere, where you see the hatching, there is a risk of tornadoes but the primary risk is hail ≥ 2 inches.  With the potential for strong tornadoes, it is important to monitor the weather Thursday (and Friday, see below). Of course, I will...