Who'd a thunk it?   California with more tornadoes than Kansas? Kansas has had one tornado so far this year while California has had four. The Great Plains' tornado count is well below average while the Midwest is running higher than average.  I suspect the pattern may begin to favor more tornadoes in the Plains after about April 15th but that is just educated speculation at this point. 

You knew global warming alarmists couldn't resist.  "Twisters" publicity shot According to an article in Nature ,  the new movie Twisters  comes out Friday and mostly "gets the science right" about tornadoes and climate change. I have not seen the movie yet (really looking forward to it) and so I am relying on the Nature article to clarify the science.  Tornado Alley Has Shifted to the Southeast Where the Threat is Higher Due to Mobile Homes and Other Factors. This is old news. How old? 49 Years!  In 1975 , Dr. Ted Fujita, along with co-authors Allen Pearson and David Ludlum, documented that tornado alley "shifts," primarily from the Great Plains to the Southeast. Their data went back to 1916. So far in 2024, the Great Plains have had a big tornado year with the Southeast much below normal. Phased Array Radar.  This is not used in real time. It is a research test product and have been in test mode at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) almost ...

Above is a map of tornadoes that have occurred from December 1 to February 29 (note: none occurred in eastern Maine). In addition to the large numbers of tornadoes that occurred in the South and Mississippi Valley, take a look at California. Tornadoes are especially common in winter during El Nino years and winter 2023-24 will be an El Nino period.  It is important to pay attention if we are forecasting tornadoes, regardless of time of year. 

This map compares numbers of tornadoes compared to average. Reds are higher. 

After the Birmingham tornado Monday night, we've seen items like this , emphasizing that the South has a serious risk of strong tornadoes and that the traditional "tornado alley" may be a flawed notion [I agree and have for many years]. Others, like CBS News, are claiming tornado alley has shifted east due to global warming . This hypothesis comes from climate models.  The hypothesis that tornado alley fluctuates geographically is not new. And, the recent rash of damaging tornadoes in the South may be part of a recurring pattern rather than a long-term climatological shift.  It was first proposed in a paper by -- who else -- the great Dr. Ted Fujita in 1975, along with co-authors Allen Pearson and David Ludlum.  Special thanks to Linda Hall Library Early in the paper, Ted wrote, Earlier work by Brown (1933) and Brown and Roberts (1935) did not  emphasize an Oklahoma-Kansas maximum. Instead, the high risk areas, as revealed by maps showing paths, suggested that Arka...

Violent Oklahoma Tornado. Courtesy of Dick McGowan I wish to direct your attention to a fascinating list ranking the intensity of the 59 tornadoes since 1950 that have been rated F-5. You can access the article, here . The reasoning is very sound and the timing is excellent. Yesterday was the anniversary of the Wichita-Andover Tornado (5th strongest tornado since 1950). Today is the 9th anniversary of two of the top three. The #3-ranked tornado by intensity was the Hackleburg, Alabama, Tornado which occurred on this date in 2011. #2 was the Jarrell, Texas, tornado of 1997. #1 was the incredible Smithville, Mississippi, tornado of this date in 2011.  Four tornadoes that have played a role in my life (Ruskin Heights, Udall, Andover, and Greensburg) are all ranked as average or stronger than average F-5's. You can read more about those in my book, Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather .  The Joplin Tornado is ranked 21st and it is the topic o...

A malicious  story regarding President Trump's nominee to be U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations  was distributed by McClatchy's Washington Bureau and appeared in my local paper yesterday. The lede is below: WASHINGTON President Donald Trump’s nominee for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is raising concern among senators important to her confirmation and diplomats in New York over her skeptical views on climate change. Kelly Craft, currently serving as Trump’s ambassador to Canada, drew the attention of foreign dignitaries in 2017 when she  said  “both sides of the science” had merit in the climate debate. But at the U.N. – where climate science is no longer subject to disagreement, where the threat  tops  the organization’s concerns and has the rare effect of  unifying  member states – her appointment underscores Trump’s dismissal of the perils of a warming Earth and his administration’s general contempt for the U.N. itself. There...

There wasn't a single tornado that caused extreme damage -- for the first time since records began being kept (1950). That type of tornado is defined as EF-4 and EF-5 intensity on the Fujita intensity scale. Even better: the trend in this type of tornado is down. And, 99 other great things are here . ADDITION: I was not aware of this (posted 1:27pm CST). If we can get through the day (there is a tornado watch in effect as I write this) without a tornado death, and I think we can, this is quite an accomplishment for weather science. The tornado warning system is a Nobel Prize-worthy endeavor . Congratulations to meteorologists at the  National Weather Service,  in private sector meteorology and  to emergency managers across our nation!

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I've had a number of discussions on Twitter today with people concerned about global warming. Regardless of what you may think or know about this issue, I want to state the following bit of rock solid science: The earth-ocean-atmosphere system will never  be in equilibrium. It has never been in equilibrium and it will not be in the future.  There are too many internal and external forcings. For example, solar flares and volcanoes are two completely natural phenomena that drive changes. Humans add greenhouse gases and create land use changes (to name two) that destabilize the system. The idea (expressed twice today) that we will go into some sort of equilibrium if we reduce greenhouse gas is scientifically incorrect.

As clearly stated below, this blog posting was based on Seth Borenstein's story about the Gensini and Brooks study. The story  states (link below): Because tornadoes sometimes go undercounted, especially in the past and in less populous areas, scientists don't like to study trends by using counts of tornadoes. I have since heard from Dr. Gensini and I have read the paper itself. They do  count number of tornadoes and the story is clearly incorrect. My objection as to the conclusions of the paper itself stand. They are: Back to Dr. Ted Fujita in the 1970's, there has been speculation about an east-west cycle regarding tornado maxima. It wish this study had referenced his work and commented on it. Forty years is too short a period of time in and of itself and, because,  From 1979 to 1996 (release of Twister ) tornado chasing was restricted to the Great Plains which might have had the effect of inflating tornado numbers versus the areas farther east where torna...

In southwest Texas, the hottest time of year is early June. In California? September. click to enlarge

 The research culture and motivational factors in the field of social psychology have arguably contributed to rewarding behaviors that are not in the best interests of scientific progress, in the same way that I have argued that the IPCC and the culture of funding, journal publication, and recognition by professional societies have not always acted in the best interests of scientific progress in climate field. I was particularly struck by the “data torturing” concept.  Please click here to read the whole thing .

Climatology is the study of long-term weather (known as “climate”) and its effects. Sounds straightforward, right? When I was at the University of Oklahoma studying for my degree in meteorology, climatology was a bit of a weak cousin to meteorology (the study of weather plus forecasting the weather). OU offered only one course in climatology. While I took that course, I thought I needed to know more so, shortly after college, I actually purchased a textbook on applied climatology because I thought I’d use it throughout my career. Turned out I was correct. Climatology is a very useful discipline for making many decisions.   In the 1970's, little did any of us suspect that climatology would end up being the political hot potato it has become today. As Meteorological Musings’ readers know, this is a non-political blog. I dislike politics and climate science has been corrupted by politics and politicians. So, imagine my shock when I learned that my friend, colleague, supe...

Matt Lauer's voice over to begin Today, "Good morning, feeling the heat. Two-thirds of the country dealing with the hottest weather of the year." Matt, it is summer. 

Here is an excellent interview with a well-respected atmospheric scientist. Please note the comments with regard to the accuracy of global climate models (GCMs). In the comments section, one questioner asks why we don't receive short term (seasonal) forecasts from the GCMs. I can answer that one: Because they are horribly inaccurate. That is the dirty secret of the climate models. They can't make accurate forecasts for 90 days but we are supposed to believe their forecasts for 90 years.

Two recent articles have been brought to my attention that demonstrate, at least to date, there no increase in major storms due to 'global warming.' The first (hat tip: Roger Pielke, Jr.) has insurance executives -- because there is so much money sloshing around because of a lack  of major catastrophes -- actually hoping for some big storms : He said brokers often tell him that a catastrophe is needed to end the soft market. In other words, they can't raise their prices because their competitors have enough money (because they have not been paying large storm claims) to keep rates low. So, no one can raise their prices. The second article discusses a new movie about 'climate change.' The article begins with this paragraph: LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) – As the number of severe weather-related disasters increases in frequency worldwide, the urgency of documentaries about   climate  change   is rising as well. It states -- as fact -- the "number ...

On many occasions, I have criticized climate science for its overreliance on obviously flawed computer models. This story from the Wall Street Journal  explains how hard work in a hostile location may lead to higher levels of understanding the workings of our climate system.

Roger Pielke, Sr. has a post, Climate Policy ≠ Energy Policy  , that is a must-read for policymakers.

No, I'm not talking about "Cap and Trade," but rather the decision by the Miami Dolphins to charge $5 more per ticket to sit on the shady side of Sun Life Stadium where, they say, temperatures are "as much as 15° cooler."  That is a dubious claim (it may feel  15° cooler in the shade on a cloudless day), but I give the Dolphins credit for creativity in their pricing. Hat Tip:  Sports Illustrated. For more on "Sun Life Stadium" from Dave Barry, click here .