The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes later today. Please keep up on the weather in these area. 

Daily Mail A few days ago, lightning from (nearly) dry thunderstorms set off a large number of fires in the Pacific Northwest. It is possible, if the facts justify, to blame them on global warming. And, in France... But these arson-set fires -- which are far more frequent than lightning sparked fires -- should never be blamed on climate change. 

This is a tiny part of the major damage from a violent tornado(es) that began around 12:55pm this afternoon in the south part of the Green Bay metro area. Appleton was hard hit with major damage and with injuries, the extent of which are unknown at this time.  The problem: At 11:30am the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center forecast zero  chance of strong tornadoes anywhere in the U.S. and just a tiny (2%) chance of tornadoes of any intensity. Because of the events in Wisconsin, they were forced to rush out (17 minutes after the tornado began) a product calling for "strong" tornadoes -- that the public doesn't even see.  I believe the tornado will be rated at least EF-3 intensity.  The local Green Bay NWS office did an adequate job with this fast-developing situation, especially since the guidance would not have indicated to them there was any kind of meaningful tornado risk. From radar, the first significant indication of a tornado was at 11:56. Their ...

Wall Street Journal Are you kidding?! This is insane. The mergers of Continental + United and Northwest + Delta never  should have been approved for antitrust/oligopoly reasons. Those mergers, along with U.S. Air + American have killed competition and have directly led to flying being the terrible experience it is today. The 'leaders' of the airlines can't manage what they have; what makes them believe they can manage a vastly bigger company?! Of course, these mergers never seem to bring the "synergy" that is promised so they end up cutting people and service.  When you combine these "too big to care" airlines with Congress being influenced by the airline lobby to make it practically impossible to hold the airlines accountable -- no matter how egregious their behavior -- it makes our airline experience worse than many "second world" airlines.  For our 50th wedding anniversary, we purchased first class tickets on American. Good thing we did! The...

The red areas have an enhanced risk  of winds of 60 mph or stronger. Where you see hatching the forecast winds are 75 mph or stronger. In those areas, power outages are quite possible.  The yellow areas have a significant risk of 60 mph gusts with 75 mph gusts possible in the hatched areas. In South Dakota, the yellow/hatched area includes Yankton and in Nebraska it includes Norfolk and O'Neill.  The greater threat begins after 6pm. 

Kansas City Star NFL training camps have begun. And as much as we love fellow Kansan Travis Kelce, and welcome his new Missus to our state, I can't say I think much of their taste in hats. His chapeau reminds me of a famous scene in a movie about another sport (below):

Happily, the caption says it all. Predictions are that it will be a below average tropical storm season in the Atlantic. Let's hope the tropical meteorologists are correct!

While Fausto is a hurricane now, it will weaken (high confidence) to tropical storm status before reaching Hawaii. In history, just a single hurricane has struck Hawaii from the east (the bad hurricanes come from the south during El Nino years).  That said, Fausto will bring heavy rains to the islands as well as sustained 40 mph winds.  Editorial comment: I get so tired of having to correct the media's clickbait. [end]

---- This post is for Kansas voters ---- I personally dislike politics and, unless it is climate change or a political issue related to science, I generally keep it out of the blog. I am making an exception that pertains to the judicial issue on the Kansas August 4 ballot. It is vital to the future of our state.  Vote YES on electing judges. The current system is a scam  that is rigged to keep the Kansas Supreme Court (KSC) liberal regardless of the wishes of Kansas voters.  Here's how the scam works: Under the current Kansas Constitution, the extremely liberal bar association nominates three people when an opening occurs on the KSC. The governor, regardless of whether they are Republican or Democrat must  choose from those three and only those three. So, even if the voters overwhelmingly put a Republican in office, he or she must choose from the three liberal nominees! When there is a Republican governor, the justices often delay retirements, etc., to prevent a Repu...

S  = tropical storm.   D  = tropical depression. Amber is the radius of tropical storm force winds (40 mph or stronger).  The Hurricane Center is moved its forecast for Bertha back into southern Texas. I'm concerned about heavy rain potential if it stalls in that area.  Otherwise, this is a disorganized tropical storm with 50 mph winds. It is forecast to weaken from this point, onward. 

NOAA You may have noticed several recent articles in which "science" supposedly attributed specific floods and wildfires (which were mostly started by arsonists) to climate change.  Single event attribution is meteorological voodoo . Nothing more.  If it was necessary to have climate change "boost" major storms the following could not have occurred. "Worst" was determined by the intensity of the event.  1871. Worst wildfire in the history of the United States. 1925. The worst tornado in the United States (and probably the world) in recorded history. 1927. The worst flood in the history of the United States.  1935. The worst hurricane in the history of the United States.  1930's. The worst drought and heatwave in the history of the United States.  Climate science says human-affected global warming began about 1958. All of these terrible events occurred without global warming's help.   Clarification:  1958 is intended to show the era it began, not ...

This is the latest update pertaining to Tropical Storm Bertha. It has peak winds of 60 mph (amber area) mostly south of its center (the X ). The forecast path has been shifted a bit to the north. Hurricane development is not  expected. 

We have two geographically large threats today. Tornado Risk The brown area has a significant risk of a tornado. Damaging Wind Risk The purple area has a high  risk of thunderstorm-generated wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger. The red area has an enhanced risk. The yellow area has a significant risk.  Power outages are quite likely. Please prepare accordingly. 

--- 3:25pm Post --- Note that in addition to tornadoes, tennis ball-sized hail and wind gusts to 75 mph are forecast to occur.  ------ The yellow area has an enhanced  tornado risk. In Iowa, the yellow area includes Waterloo and Charles City and nearly includes Dubuque and Mason City. The brown area has a significant tornado risk which, in Iowa, includes Ames, Marshalltown and Clear Lake. In Minnesota, the brown area includes Rochester.  The hatching means that any tornado that occurs in that area could be strong.  I will update occasionally on Twitter/X   @usweatherexpert  . 

While the tropical storm watches have been extended, the forecast peak winds with the system have been lowered. The greater threat with this system is possible heavy rain in Texas when it comes inland over the weekend or the first of next week. 

Via Bjorn Lomborg: Multiple scientists have pointed out that this year's wildfire activity is well below average. Plus, Canada's temperatures have averaged below  average so far in 2026.  The "global warming caused the Canadian wildfires" is the usual alarmist nonsense. 

.... here are suggestions for debris pick up if you county or city is offering it.  Good luck, Texas!!

The National Hurricane Center is alerting people the area outlined along the Gulf Coast should be prepared for a tropical storm. While wind may be a problem, torrential rain may also develop.  I'm very concerned that this storm will bring more heavy rain to south Texas.  Of course, I will update on this situation. 

What a heartbreaking story! Unfortunately, DEI and trans'ing teenagers will have similar outcomes.  Speaking of ridiculous: This nonsense is a cancer on our society.  And, speaking on cancers on society: The only thing California's high speed rail project has produced is record amounts of graft. 

Tornado Risk The brown areas have a significant risk of tornadoes and where the hatching occurs, which includes Atlantic City, Wilmington and Camden, indicates that if a tornado occurs, it could be strong. Damaging Wind Risk Here is the color code: The pink is a rare  high  risk of damaging winds (on my 4-point scale) of 60 mph or stronger.  The red is an enhanced risk of damaging winds. The yellow area is a significant risk of damaging winds. How to prepare? With widespread power outages possible, fill your car with fuel, get extra cash at the ATM, fill your generator with fuel.  Bring in lawn furniture or other items that can be blown about. Trampolines are the (humorous) "State Bird of Kansas" because they fly so easily. They can also damage the objects or homes they strike. Bring it indoors, if possible.  If you have a chainsaw, go ahead and fill it with gas or electrical charge. Mobile homes that are not tied down are not safe in high winds. If you live in ...