The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. The hatched area is where a tornado, if it occurs, could be strong. Please monitor the weather in this area today.

...this is required reading! And, whenever you hear the ' speculation' about President Trump using the Insurrection Act or other propaganda (Senator Markey is speaking at the purple link), keep in mind that those stories are intended to influence you against Trump even though Trump hasn't done anything along those lines. The left-wing MSM media is desperate to stay relevant and influential.  

As many of you know, I specialize in short term (7 days or less) forecasts of extreme weather and its effects. I do not do long range (beyond 10 days) forecasting. Nor do I publish others' forecasts because I cannot find any that have any consistent skill. This item, published last week, caught my eye. Compare the NOAA temperature forecasts to the actual results. Most are bad to terrible quality. These are temperature forecasts. The precipitation forecasts are even worse!   I've also kept track of the accuracy of several other sources of long range forecasts and they aren't any better. This includes The Farmer's Almanac  which is consistently awful.  Wish the results were better. Our society could save a lot of money with accurate long range forecasts. 

The heavy rain last week was accompanied by tornadoes, large hail and record flooding. More heavy rain is likely from the end of this week into early next week and, likely, beyond.  Below is are the forecast rainfall amounts for the next five days. Rivers are already high in the 4 Corners region so this heavy rain will worsen what has been record flooding in some areas. While forecasting beyond 5 days is dicey, here is the 6-10 day rainfall outlook. NOAA is portraying very high confidence of heavier than usual rainfall throughout the Southwest. This could turn into a record flood situation over a large geographic area. This is a result, in part, of the El Nino. As we, and others, have been saying: The only way to "fix" the terrible rain deficits in the Colorado River Basin is by flooding rains. This is going to be a problem throughout the winter! You will also recall the destructive tornadoes in the Southwest last week. More tornadoes are possible or even likely this week and...

I hope you will take a few minutes to browse my galley at Adobe Stock Photography .  There are about 250 curated images I believe you will enjoy. I also want to thank all of the people and/or enterprises who have licensed by stock photography the past few weeks. 

I think we have a new winner for dumbest road sign. Below, from 2023, is the previous winner. It drops to #2.

The Milwaukee Brewers won game 1 of the World Series last night. It was a thrilling, close game with a final score of 3-2 over the Rays.  I can just hear Bob Uecker up in Heaven (a/k/a, "the front row" ) saying, " Ya know [Saint] Pete, the team paid me a $50,000 bonus for this game. All I had to do is not come within 5 miles of the stadium!" Also, there was a faint sound I heard during last night's 5th inning. I think it was Bob shouting, He missed the tag, he missed the tag!

Alan Gerard is a former NWS forecasters and manager as well as a retired NOAA manager. Regarding the warning mess, today he wrote this essay . Highly recommended!   From Matthew Cappucci, a well-known Washington, DC meteorologist: More and more, I believe the NWS will "fix" this by setting up a National Storm Warning  Center (not to be confused with their Storm Prediction  Center). The problem is that, with civil service hiring rules, there is absolutely no guarantee that expert tornado warning meteorologists will be hired for the job.  The NWS desperately needs to seek outside expertise before embarking on yet another "reorganization" and it needs to take that advice seriously. 

The past 2 days have seen a major shift in the way the National Weather Service’s (NWS) storm warning services in general, and tornado warnings in particular, are viewed by many in the meteorological community as well by members of the media, emergency management, and the public. The usual NWS apologists seem to be changing their minds after the incredibly bad warning services provided to the Southwest .  The sentence should read, "Not even a severe thunderstorm warning???" The radar image on the right shows an impressive amount of lofted debris. People were injured. There was considerable destruction. Even destructive tornadoes went without warning, and warnings were issued on thunderstorms that had zero change of producing a tornado (including warnings based on hail spikes and other radar artifacts that falsely indicate rotation). Radar, in a New Mexico case, showed tornadic lofted debris in progress but no tornado warning! The Arizona town of  Overgaard  had zero warni...

After tornadoes in Arizona yesterday, the threat has shifted a bit to the southeast. Remember: a tornado watch  means tornadoes are possible and you should monitor the weather. A tornado warning means one is imminent and safety measures should be taken. Large hail is also possible.  Note: Because of previous obligations, I am not able to issue independent tornado warnings today. 

-- Updated Thursday morning with information about injuries -- We have written, over and over, about the National Weather Service's increasing inability to issue timely and accurate tornado warnings for the United States. This morning's hapless effort illustrates why we need a National Disaster Review Board and why we need a change of emphasis and maybe leadership at NWS/NOAA.  The news media says this is a confirmed tornado in central Arizona. There are other reports of a tornado(es) touching down but they are unconfirmed.  Here is a rundown of this mess, all times local Arizona time (MST): 7:03a, I tweeted a forecast of tornadoes in central Arizona and a link to the blog post below .  7:23a, I sent a note to the NWS offices in Flagstaff and Phoenix requesting, given the tornado threat, they put their radars into a tornado mode with more frequent updates. They did not. Four minute intervals is too infrequent when tornadoes threaten. I continued to send warning info to ...

We need to mitigate the warming of our atmosphere. It is best done through nuclear and, especially, next-generation nuclear. But the prophets of immediate doom are simply wrong. 

In addition to tornadoes, 70 mph thunderstorm-generated wind gusts and tennis ball-sized hail are forecast to occur.  --- original forecast still valid --- The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes and also very large hail. When you hear thunderstorm or the sky appears threatening, head inside and stay away from windows. 

Here's an idea: Two Olympic sports, softball and the river events, are being held in Oklahoma City. While I'm sure it will not "cheap," it is almost certain to be significantly less expensive than Los Angeles.

I learned a lot of FEMA's flood maps and what they are not  intended to do from this article . In the wake of Camp Mystic, Hurricane Helene and other recent disasters, it is especially timely. The points made in the article continue to point for the need to reform FEMA but I doubt that will ever happen. 

There's been a lot of criticism of Elon's "flying car." Offer these immortal words (via Twitter/X) for your consideration.  HeiLender™ @Heilenderer · 7h Translated from German "The horse will always be there, but the automobile is just a fashion trend – a toy for the rich." Michigan Savings Bank, 1903 "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Thomas Watson, 1943 "No chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share." Steve Ballmer, 2007 "The Internet has hardly more important effects on the economy than the fax machine." Paul Krugman, 1998 "Flying machines heavier than air are physically impossible." Lord Kelvin, 1895 "The spam problem with emails will be solved in at most two years." Bill Gates, 2004 "The television won't hold up in the market. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every evening." Darryl F. Zanuck, 1946 "There is ...

Since this blog was created in November, 2009, it has stated that, "we are passionate about liberty." Day by day, we are watching our liberties being taken away from us.  Here's yet Flock + police abuse published yesterday: Second example from yesterday: Do you think you or I would get away with this because we "didn't intend" to violate the law?  In my world, police should be held to a higher standard. But most of today's police don't even understand the very basics of constitutional rights and don't care.  Update: Flock won't let you cancel when your contract is up! In my opinion, this whole thing is evil. It needs to be stopped!

Out our back window.......  Click to see the entire photo. 

Damage from 1983 Los Angeles Tornado During El Ninos, California's "Southland" (coastal counties from Santa Barbara to Los Angeles to San Diego up to the mountain foothills) has a significantly enhanced risk of tornadoes during the rainy season.  The worst tornado in Los Angeles' history occurred during the strong 1982-83 El Nino. It was an EF-2 that injured at least 30 people. There are reports that it killed six but there were no direct fatalities.  If you live in the Southland, I urge  you to check with your insurance company to make sure you have coverage for a tornado. Since this is forecast to be a record El Nino, who knows that the tornado situation may turn out to be? This includes people living in apartments as you need coverage for your contents.