Monday, May 20, 2019

[UPDATED] 8am Monday: Extreme Flood Risk This Week

-- Important Note--

Normally, I let the NWS do its thing and I do mine. However, there has been a huge difference between our two 24-hr heavy rain forecasts. Their new flash flood forecast basically admits their forecast is too far south:
It is saying the computer models are putting the risk 150 mi farther north than what they originally forecast. Unfortunately, they are splitting the difference in their update (not shown). I never believed those models plus I use non-model-based techniques in my forecasts to confirm the models make sense. I continue to believe my original forecast (below) is correct, although I would make clear Tulsa, Stillwater and Guthrie are at risk.

As always, Mother Nature will determine which forecast is correct.

-- Original Posting --

Let's begin with the immediate threat which is an extreme rainfall event from 9am today until noon Tuesday (May 21). The resulting flash flooding will be severe and life-threatening. Below is the highest risk area.
Yes, 13" may fall in this period of time!  Note: I'm not saying there won't be other areas of heavy rain. This is meant to delineate the highest threat area.

If it were me, I would be hunkered down tonight. Travel after dark will be extremely hazardous and not recommended. However, if you live in a highly flood-prone area, you may want to consider moving to a friend or family member's house before dark.

Below is my forecast (i.e., the European model plus my forecast superimposed as vertical lines) for rainfall the next seven days.
Day 8 through 15 continue wet.

Remember: If you encounter flooding, turn around, don't drown.

What to do?
  • Prepare a "go kit." Put needed and easily transportable items in your car or near your car where you can grab it and move quickly.
  • If you have to evacuate, turn off the main power and water. Locate them now if you are not sure where they are located. 
  • Keep your automobile fully fueled.
  • Get extra cash.
  • Make sure your prescriptions are refilled.
  • Know your destination and make sure your path is not flooded. 
  • Keep your smartphone charged. 
I urge you to take this seriously. Areas will flood that have never flooded before. Please make sure vulnerable friends and relatives know of the risk. Prepare accordingly. 

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