Sunday, May 19, 2019

Update on Major Flood Risk

Let's begin by taking a look at rainfall for the past seven days.
Most of the threatened region has experienced moderate to heavy rains. Soil moisture is at the 99% percentile over a huge part of the region.

The blue and dark green dots are areas where the river is already running high. Blue = 90th percentile.

The forecast rainfalls, even if they were going to fall on dry soil, are enough to cause major flooding. Given the already swollen rivers and wet soil, much of it will run off creating the potential for record -- catastrophic -- flooding.
The yellow dots over Kansas are 10" with the western dot and 11" with the eastern dot. The gold color over much of eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma is 7" or more. Moderate to heavy rains are forecast for the next seven days over much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. In California, unseasonable heavy rains are forecast.

The heavy rains will begin tomorrow. Take today to prepare. 

What to do?
  • Prepare a "go kit." Put needed and easily transportable items in your car or near your car where you can grab it and move quickly.
  • If you have to evacuate, turn off the main power and water. Locate them now if you are not sure where they are located. 
  • Keep your automobile fully fueled.
  • Get extra cash.
  • Make sure your prescriptions are refilled.
  • Know your destination and make sure your path is not flooded. 
  • Keep your smartphone charged. 
I urge you to take this seriously. Areas will flood that have never flooded before. Please make sure vulnerable friends and relatives know of the risk. Prepare accordingly. 

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