Sunday, May 19, 2019

Dangerous Tornado Situation for Monday and Monday Night

There is, unfortunately, a risk of the type of tornadoes that can turn deadly Monday and Monday night. There is no need for worry. We had those type of tornadoes in Kansas and Nebraska Friday night and they missed population centers. Hopefully, that will be the case with this next round of storms. Regardless, it is time to prepare if you are in the threatened area.

Here is the NWS Storm Prediction Center's Forecast of overall severe weather (tornadoes and severe thunderstorms). The yellow, 15%, is the significant threshold.
The hatching is where strong tornadoes and/or hail larger than 2" are forecast to occur. The purple area is a 45% risk which is relatively high.

However, their forecast does not break tornadoes out separately. For planning purposes, I believe that is necessary in this case. Below is my tornado forecast valid from 9am Monday until 8am Tuesday.
While tornadoes may occur anywhere in the SPC yellow area, I have broken down the three areas:
  1. The European model and the one of the mesoscale models runs the warm front father north than the others. I believe that is correct and, if so, will be over the middle Flint Hills about sunrise. The chances of tornadoes will increase in area 1 after 6pm and, especially, after dark. Some tornadoes could occur even after midnight. I discuss special safety precautions below.
  2. What I am calling the extreme risk has the highest risk of number of tornadoes and intensity of tornadoes. I recommend being in touch with weather information any time after 9am. 
  3. The high risk of tornadoes, on most days, would be an impressive forecast. In Texas, be on alert all day. In Oklahoma, be alert after 12 noon. 
  • Because of the higher than average overnight tornado risk, I strongly recommend downloading both the AccuWeather app (scroll down to bottom of page). Be sure to allow location services. 
  • Making sure you have turned the emergency notification feature on your smartphone. Easy instructions are at the red link. 
  • Insure your PC and phone are fully charged but take them off the charger before lightning arrives.

Great recommendations for preparing your property are here.

Finally, I believe far eastern Kansas, the Arkansas Ozarks, and Missouri will be under the gun on Tuesday. I'll post more on that tomorrow.

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