Monday, May 20, 2019

8:50am Monday: Risk of Deadly Tornadoes

These forecasts are difficult to write but there is no other way to say it: by this time tomorrow morning violent, long-track tornadoes will have occurred. Hopefully, they will miss population areas. But, we can't count on that. So, we must prepare for the worst. Please make sure friends and relatives are aware of this threat. 

Here is the Storm Prediction Center's tornado forecast valid until 7am.
The brown, 5%, area is the significant threat level. The probabilities ratchet up to purple, 30%, which is an extreme level. The hatching indicates where they are forecasting violent tornadoes.

I have one area of disagreement and that is in southeast Kansas. I would have pulled the 5% area farther north. Below is my (additional) tornado forecast valid until 8am Tuesday.
Below are safety suggestions:
  • Because of the higher than average overnight tornado risk, I strongly recommend downloading both the AccuWeather app (scroll down to bottom of page). Be sure to allow location services. 
  • Making sure you have turned the emergency notification feature (ENF) your smartphone. Easy instructions are at the red link. 
  • If you are in the threat area, put your (fully charged!) smartphone with the AW App and the ENF turned on next to your bed! Turn on your weather radio. You want to be awakened if a tornado warning is issued. 
  • Insure your PC and phone are fully charged but take them off the charger before lightning arrives.
  • Have a flash light (check the batteries), a couple bottles of water and diapers in your shelter area. Take your cell phone into shelter with you. 
  • Always wear shoes into your shelter. 
Finally, I believe far eastern Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri will be under the gun on Tuesday with a tornado threat. I'll post on that early this afternoon.

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