In the Great Plains or Mississippi River Valley? Get Your Preliminary Tornado and Flood Preparation Done NOW!

By -
[Important: Please pass this on to friends and 
relatives in the areas to be affected.]

If you scroll down to Sunday's articles you'll see that I posted what was for me an unprecedented forecast on this blog. I attempted to forecast tornado and flood risk a week and more in advance. This is due to the fact that I am out of town with the family for the funeral of my Aunt tomorrow (scroll down) and I have a very ill family member in the hospital. In spite of limited time this week,  my I want to let you know about this major storm risk.

I just had about 45-minutes to myself and I decided to look at the forecast data. I'm sorry to report that I have a one-word reaction: Worried.

This concern is on two levels: The risk of violent tornadoes (we haven't had one in the US in nearly three years) will be much higher than normal. The risk of flooding and flash flooding will also be high if this weather pattern evolves as forecasted. 

Michael Ventrice of WSI posted this experimental product of theirs which forecasts (in the aggregate) the probability of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms (defined as producing large hail and damaging winds) during the same period of time as my forecast. 
Please note how much this resembles the forecast map I posted Sunday:
Confidence is building that we could experience a major to, perhaps, historic (in terms of number of days or storms) severe weather outbreak. 

At this point, there is no way to get more specific as to locations and exact storm intensities. So, please allow me offer some important recommendations to allow you to prepare -- now!
  • Make your smartphone weather-smart. Add the AccuWeather App. It will provide you urgent, location-specific NWS warnings faster than any other source. Turn the volume up so you will hear when a warning is received. 
  • Then, turn on the government's WEA emergency notifications. On an iPhone, go to "Settings" (the "gear" symbol) from your main menu." Then, as shown below, tap "Notifications." 
Once you have tapped Notifications, scroll down to the bottom and turn on Emergency Alerts.
While not as fast or as location-specific as NWS warnings provided by the AccuWeather App, the WEA tones will wake you up at night if the phone is next to your bed. So, you want both. Because WEA only triggers for tornado and flash flood warnings you don't have the false alarm problem that you have with many NOAA Weather Radios. Please make sure family and friends have done this.

Other Safety Suggestions
  • Get fresh batteries for your weather radio and install them. 
  • Clear out your storm shelter area. Add a bottle of water for each member of the family. Two diapers for each infant. A flashlight with fresh batteries. We have some valuable scrap books that we pre-locate in the basement. 
  • Keep your smartphone and computer charged but take them off the chargers before lightning arrives. 
  • Can't hurt to pick up some extra cash at the ATM. Keep your fuel tank filled.
  • If you live in an area prone to flooding, get a "go-kit" ready -- things you need (including totable family heirlooms) to take with you in an evacuation and have them pre-gathered. 
  • Remember critical medicines for your go-kit or to take into your shelter with you. 
Please get these things done by Thursday evening. Then, start monitoring the weather Friday morning and for the next week if you live in the threatened areas. 

I fully realize that I'm out on a limb and all of this might not come to pass. If you prepare and nothing happens, I'll gladly read your nastygram. I'd love to be wrong! I will probably have time to update this forecast Friday morning and will do so if I can. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more