Friday, May 17, 2019

Extraordinary Rainfall Forecast Next Two Weeks

Unfortunately for spring planting and spring crops, the wet pattern is going to go from bad to worse over the next two weeks. The resulting flooding will disrupt transportation and many other businesses. 

So, we are going to review some charts we don't normally display on the blog.

Probability of More than Two Inches the Next Two Weeks
This chart is created using an ensemble of American weather forecasting simulations.
The deep red color is a 99+% probability. Yellow is even chances.

Probability of More than Six Inches the Next Two Weeks
Probabilities of more than six inches are higher than 90% from far north central Oklahoma through the Kansas Flint Hills and into northwest Missouri.

European Model Forecast For Ten Days
In order to get a "second opinion," here is the European model (independent of the U.S.'s models) and  it, too, depicts excessive to catastrophic rainfall amounts.

For the Central United States:

The heaviest rains, on multiple model runs over the last two days, are forecast to fall on Kansas.
More than fifteen inches of rain is forecast to fall on the Lower Kansas River basin. Heavy rains of more than five inches are forecast for much of the eastern half of the State.

These forecast rains will be devastating to the 2019 corn crop. Planting is already at historically late levels. Soybean and other fields will be flooded in some areas. If this forecast is even close to correct there will be major highways closed.

Note: For periodic updates, please follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert.

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