3:10pm CDT The chance for tornadoes east of Pensacola will rise rapidly from now until this evening. The tornado watch is plotted below.  12:45pm, Unfortunately, More Bad News Lightning has developed on the east side of the eye. Plus, a Hurricane Hunter just measured the barometric pressure and it is dropping. Both are signs the storm will remain at current intensity or even strengthen a bit before making landfall this evening. See below for the latest safety recommendations! 1235p Isaias has unexpectedly intensified to a Cat 3 hurricane! Radar at 11:56am. Watches and warnings in effect: W Color code: Red = hurricane warning Blue = tropical storm warning  Yellow = tropical storm watch Brown = hurricane-force winds Amber = tropical storm force winds   There is a tornado watch now in effect.  Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents under evacuation orders should leave immedia...

The map below shows: the path of the eye of the storm, white,   the hurricane warning area, red,  tropical storm warning and hurricane, striped, tropical storm warning, blue,  tropical storm watch, yellow The forecast for Isaias is essentially unchanged. It is expected to be Cat 1 at landfall.  Dangerous storm surge is the greatest threat from Isaias. There will also be flash flooding inland and, along and to the east of the eye, the potential for tornadoes. 

This forecast is out-of-date. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for San Diego County. See updated forecast here .  While the Gulf Coast is rightly concerned about Isaias, there is reason to be concerned that the remains of Pacific Hurricane Rachel could be the most serious storm in southeast California and Arizona since 1976's Hurricane Kathleen.  Flooding Rains As much as five inches is forecast along the path of the storm with isolated higher amounts. It is entirely possible the forecast path may shift east or, especially, west on later forecasts. Given this is a desert, there is little doubt that these rains will cause significant flooding. Roads and railroads could be washed out.  Damaging Winds Again, this path of higher winds could shift east or west with time but with gusts to near 80 mph, considerable damage is possible, including loss of power.  When comparing to Hurricane Kathleen, please recall the population of the area is much higher now than it wa...

Dr. Cliff Mass has written a timely and interesting article about the direction our nation should follow to better use storm warnings to mitigate the effects of major storms and other weather-related disasters. You will find it here .  Given the recent hurricanes in both the Gulf and Pacific, Cliff's paper is especially timely. 

Pressures are falling rapidly which will likely lead to rapid intensification. In the last six hours, the pressure has dropped from 1000 to 994 millibars. Its maximum sustained wind is already 65 mph, just 10 mph short of hurricane force. If Isaias reaches hurricane force, as it almost certainly will, it would be the first hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean Basin in 2026.  The storm is forecast to be a Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 in terms of wind speed when it makes landfall.  Storm Surge Forecast Seven feet is a major storm surge!  Please observe local information regarding evacuations.  Flash Flood Risk This is a flash flood forecast for the next five days. Please make plans to evacuate if you live in a low-lying or flood-prone area, especially if you reside in the red area. Tornadoes I believe there will be a major tornado threat with Isaias but it is too soon to make a specific forecast. 

12:15pm. Hurricane Hunter aircraft shows the pressure has dropped six millibars in 2 hours which will likely pave the way for rapid intensification.  -- original post, still valid --  A hurricane and storm surge watch is in effect for the pink are on the map. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the area in yellow. Peak winds are forecast to be 110 mph while it is over the Gulf and somewhat less strong when it makes landfall. A major storm surge is forecast. I will update this afternoon. 

Three of thousands of news graphics about the current El Nino. A record El Nino (an area of warmer than average seawater along the Equator from South America west into the Pacific) is developing. So far, the media -- over and over -- has hyped the effects of the oceanic current.  But an article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society correctly points out there is another side to El Nino occurrences. It looked back on the giant 1997-98 El Nino and tallied up the pluses and minuses. For the United States, The Negative Costs $1.7 billion (not adjusted for inflation to 2026) in losses $400 million in federal government relief $125 million for state assistance $700 million agricultural losses $ 70  million losses in sales of snow removal equipment $190 million loss to the tourist industry  189 people killed The Economic Gains $6.7 billion, reduced heating costs $5.6 billion, increased sales of everything from houses and other goods $380 million, reduced snow re...