12:15pm. Hurricane Hunter aircraft shows the pressure has dropped six millibars in 2 hours which will likely pave the way for rapid intensification.  -- original post, still valid --  A hurricane and storm surge watch is in effect for the pink are on the map. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the area in yellow. Peak winds are forecast to be 110 mph while it is over the Gulf and somewhat less strong when it makes landfall. A major storm surge is forecast. I will update this afternoon. 

Three of thousands of news graphics about the current El Nino. A record El Nino (an area of warmer than average seawater along the Equator from South America west into the Pacific) is developing. So far, the media -- over and over -- has hyped the effects of the oceanic current.  But an article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society correctly points out there is another side to El Nino occurrences. It looked back on the giant 1997-98 El Nino and tallied up the pluses and minuses. For the United States, The Negative Costs $1.7 billion (not adjusted for inflation to 2026) in losses $400 million in federal government relief $125 million for state assistance $700 million agricultural losses $ 70  million losses in sales of snow removal equipment $190 million loss to the tourist industry  189 people killed The Economic Gains $6.7 billion, reduced heating costs $5.6 billion, increased sales of everything from houses and other goods $380 million, reduced snow re...

There are three hurricanes that are going to affect the United States in the next ten days or so. There are three important weather systems that will affect the U.S. Lower 48 during the next 3 to 15 days. The above map is a rough overview. Note: Isaias may come inland farther west than shown on this map.  Above represents the forecast rain amounts for the next five days. Isaias is along the Gulf Coast and pretty well speaks for itself.  Hurricane #1 will move from the Pacific into Baja and will spread moderate to heavy rain over the Intermountain Region from days 3 to 9. Flooding possible in spots.  Tropical Storm or Hurricane #2. It will move into the body of Mexico and spread rain, possibly heavy, over Texas (Day 5 to 9) and the south central United States. Rain over Texas is badly needed and relatively little flooding is expected at this point.  As of 5:30pm, Isaias is developing in the Bay of Campeche in the far southwest Gulf.  Here is the preliminary forec...

The National Hurricane Center is now forecasting a threat of a hurricane along the Gulf Coast.  H = hurricane.  S = Tropical Storm.  D = Tropical Depression.  I'll have more info this evening. Stay tuned!

A n advertisement by WSI for the for-profit, fee-based NWS Nexrad Service  Today was Day 3 for the unavailability of NWS radars along the northeast Gulf Coast (they finally came up about 2pm Eastern time). While the radars were available to the controlling NWS office, they could not be used by anyone else. This was just the latest of the increasingly common NWS/NOAA fiascos that started about 20 years ago and have become much, much worse in recent months.  The NWS has no announced plan to fix this. In fact, the NWS has indicated it has no interest in improving the radar network .  While the radars were unavailable, flash flooding was occurring in the area. There is some threat of a tropical storm or hurricane the end of this week. The Weather Channel's legendary meteorologist Jim Cantore offered a suggestion on Twitter/X Monday morning: One would have thought he suggested tearing down the Statue of Liberty. "Free" weather -- no matter how poor the quality -- is treated li...

With Flock cameras and their competitors, we are now being (illegally, I believe) monitored in most of the places we go via our cars.   Now, the surveillance state takes another huge step with  surveillance inside our cars.   My car was in the shop last week and, as usual, Hatchett Genesis in Wichita, a great dealer, gave us a current year SUV as a loaner. Unfortunately, it was equipped with the new Congress-mandated surveillance system (orange rectangle, below). In addition to its inability to accurately detect drunkenness, when I wanted to turn right, I put my right hand on the steering wheel at the 11 o'clock position. That blocked the sensor with my arm which led to a tone and a scolding message on the display screen (not shown). It claims to be able to tell if you are impaired by your eye movements. Here's more via AI: Key Features Monitoring Mechanisms -- Infrared Cameras : These cameras track the driver's eye movement and pupil dilation. -- Sensors : Additiona...

It is now Day 3 of the NWS's communications issues which make the radar data (red) unavailable. No restoration time has been announced.    -- original post -- From Alan Gerard a few minutes ago: Comms issue continues to impact eastern Gulf Coast NWS offices Flash flooding to be a risk here today as well as in south Texas. Record heat continues in California. OCT 4 Starting off today with an update on the  communications outage impacting the eastern Gulf Coast NWS offices in Mobile and Tallahassee . Unfortunately, the outage persists this morning, more than 24 hours after it started. RadarScope shows that data from the five Gulf Coast region radars from Mobile to Moody AFB, GA (KVAX) remains unavailable. Alan is a recently retired meteorologist with the NWS/NOAA. It is in no way an exaggeration that the NWS is falling apart. Why there isn't more concern from Congress or the Trump administration is baffling.