The path of Helene in power outages The latest figures show [updated] 4,300,000 homes and businesses without power which equals nearly ten million people.  It is going to be days or even weeks before power is restored.  A rare flash flood emergency  is in effect for metropolitan Atlanta at this time.  [updated] We believe this is the largest "flash flood emergency area" ever issued.  Below is the rainfall map for the 48 hours ending at 9am today. More than 24 inches have fallen along the border of North and South Carolina! It is still raining in the area. Mt Mitchell, North Carolina, just reported a wind gust of 108 mph! (Added Friday Afternoon) Here is the current location of the storm.  Below is the forecast for additional  rainfall from now to Saturday evening. 

One of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft just measured 164 mph winds in Helene at 7,000' above sea level. This nearly perfectly corresponds to what we are seeing on Doppler radar just below that level. These will likely get to ground level, at least as gusts.  Still lots of lightning on the radar at 9:26pm. The eyewall, with those extreme winds, is now brushing the coast near Steinhatchee and west of Salem. The storm is moving just a touch east of north at this time. The eyewall should be moving over land during the next hour.  A NWS extreme wind warning for winds > 100 mph is in effect for the areas outlined below.  Now is the time to get into your tornado shelters. Due to the extreme winds of Helene, sheltering like it is a tornado is necessary.

Rare "extreme wind warning" issued. Radar at 8:57 shows the position of Helene. I've drawn a "donut" around the eyewall.  The highest winds are within the "donut" with the very highest winds in the northeast quarter. We are within an hour of the eyewall getting to land. Gusts will be at least 150 mph in this very dangerous storm.  At 9:07pm, Doppler radar measured a 160 mph wind at about 5,000 feet above sea level. With all of the lightning, I'm very worried this is mixing down toward the ground. This is similar wind to a "strong" tornado. Storm surge will now be flooding into the coast in many areas. Helene went over a NOAA ocean buoy and it recorded 26' waves. Those will be part of the storm surge.  Another tornado watch was just issued until 8 am. 

The National Weather Service radar in Tallahassee has been switched to a special mode to measure hurricane wind speeds and we are seeing 155 mph winds about 8,000' up in the storm as 8:20pm. The lightning has resumed which seems to indicate we are seeing another round of intensification and those winds higher up may  reach down to ground level. Catastrophic damage is likely along the path of the eyewall. The area between the two lines is going to hit with extraordinary winds tonight. Please shelter as if it was a tornado warning. In addition to a battery operated radio or television, bring in some food and water bottles. Areas have been known to lose water service in extreme hurricanes.  If at all possible, shelter in the bathroom on the lowest floor. Put your children in the bathtub. If you helmets (like a football helmet) wear them, no matter how silly it may make you feel. Don't even think about riding this out in a trailer home. Wind speeds will be rising rapidly bet...

Lightning has appeared in the eye of Helene which is a sign that rapid intensification is likely occurring. We just got a report from a Hurricane Hunter that the pressure has dropped to nearly 946 mb (compared to 951 two hours ago) and winds at 18,000 feet were 160 mph. It is possible those winds will mix down toward the surface which means Helene could be an upper  Cat 4 at landfall or even stronger.  If you live between the two arrows, catastrophic  damage from hurricane winds and the ever-possible chance of tornadoes means that, if you haven't evacuated, it is essential  to shelter as if this was a tornado approaching. That means: Lowest floor Small room in the middle of the house Bathroom, if possible. Children in the bathtub. Wear helmets (like football helmets), if possible. Bring a flashlight, battery powered radio (preferably weather radio) or television.  One other thing (6:47 Eastern), a flash flood warning is in effect for much of the Atlanta Metro. T...

The hurricane has intensified as expected and, at landfall, should be a Cat 4 storm. If you live between the coast and I-10, I urge you to shelter as if this was a tornado. That means the middle of your home, lowest floor, preferably in a bathroom rather than a hallway. The preference for the bathroom is because of the pipes reinforcing the walls and the ability for the children to be in the bathtub.  The map below is in Eastern time.  5pm: pressure is 951 mb with sustained of 130 mph with gusts to 155 mph. The gusts are equivalent to an F-3 intensity tornado on the Fujita Scale. The brown area on the map is the width of the sustained  winds of 75 mph or stronger.  In southern Georgia at 2am, the sustained winds are forecast to be 105 mph with gusts to 125 mph!! From the air, once this is over, it is going to look like a lawn mower went through the region. Because of the earlier rains plus the current rains, trees will topple in astounding numbers. Power will be out ...

10pm EDT:  Based on the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters, the barometric pressure has dropped another 3 millibars to 971 mb but the winds are about the same -- 85 mph -- as they are when the 5:25 update (below) was written. The storm is still not terribly well organized.  The hurricane is, yet again, attempting to form an eye. It looks like it is fighting off some unexpectedly dry air.  So, the information below is still valid. I'll have another update during the mid- to late morning tomorrow (Thursday). The National Hurricane Center is starting to release its 5pm EDT package of data and forecasts. Helene is intensifying and is now forecast to be Cat 4 at landfall with a catastrophic storm surge up to 20'. In addition, they are now forecasting trees to be toppled as far north as northern Georgia and northwest South Carolina.  Position and Wind Speed Landfall of the eye will be late Thursday evening but  damaging winds will precede the eye and e...

3:50pm comment. A number of the models are showing landfall a bit farther east than earlier forecasts. So as to prevent confusion, I have been using the National Hurricane Center's position and intensity forecasts for Helene. The next forecast from NHC will be out in an hour. If you live in northern Florida, please check back for possible updates.  After several tries, I think Helene will finally be successful in forming an eye. Here is the satellite image from 4:10 EDT. 11:10am: Helene is officially a hurricane with 80 mph winds and will be a major hurricane with a large diameter at landfall.  Wind speeds at landfall are forecast to be 125 mph with stronger gusts. This is a life-threatening storm.  There will be a life-threatening storm surge.  High winds will precede the eye by hours.  Heavy rain will cause major  flooding from the Florida Panhandle through the Southeast and southern Appalachians.  Tornadoes are likely.  Below is the r...

It is unfortunate, but there are people posting misleading information pertaining to Helene. For example, this was posted on Twitter a couple of hours ago. It purports to forecast Helene to be a super-hurricane  Yes, this is a model prediction for Helene but it is from a model that is not  designed to forecast hurricanes!   Most of today's forecasts from the models designed to forecast hurricanes show the storm to be less intense at landfall than yesterday's forecasts from those same models.  There is plenty to worry about pertaining to Helene: the storm surge , the inland flooding , and -- of course -- the winds at landfall without posting clickbait.