As our long-time readers know, we grade all of our original forecasts and, yes, we have given ourselves an F in the past.  So, here is the grading for our forecast for Francine made September 7. This was a full day  before the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories.  The star is the position of landfall of Hurricane Francine.  The National Hurricane Center's forecast, published after  the forecast above, does not have the eventual point of landfall, even though it is a seven day forecast, in the threat area.  My grade for this forecast is A-. The minus is because of the "hardly a sure thing" messaging. It should have been stronger.  There is a second grade to give for not  forecasting tropical storm development in the six days preceding this forecast when The Weather Channel and others were forecasting that "something" might develop. The not  forecasting development when it was crossing the Atlantic is an A.

8:40pm note: For those who have been following along with my forecasts, I have been telling people in Baton Rouge (especially) and New Orleans to make preparations for damaging winds. Based on the latest data, I believe the threat for those two cities has risen since earlier today.  4:10pm Update: Hurricane warnings have been posted for the Louisiana coast (red).  Winds at landfall are now forecast to be 100 mph, which is a significant change since this morning's forecast. There is also a high surge warning. The pink/blue is a hurricane watch/tropical storm warning. Yellow is a tropical storm watch. Damaging winds are likely in Baton Rouge and possible in New Orleans. In red, the storm surge is forecast to be up to 10 feet -- a life-threatening situation.  Tornadoes are possible along and to the east of the path of the eye of the hurricane.  Now is the time to prepare. Below is the time of arrival of the 40 mph or stronger winds.   Along the coast and in fl...