Category 5 Melissa, One of the Strongest Hurricanes in Atlantic History, 11:10pm Monday

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11:10pm. Updated NHC forecast and warnings. 
Red = hurricane warnings. 

8:10pm. I think the Hurricane Center is being conservative with Melissa's eye winds. They are clearly at least 180 mph. The storm has been drifting very slowly to the southwest the past couple of hours which was not forecast. The farther west the eye moves, the better it would be for Jamaica so please offer some prayers this trend continues. I'd love for the purple line below to be the most correct or even to the west. 

1:48pm. Melissa's winds are now 175 mph -- one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes in history. 

1:30pm. Melissa has made the north turn. Below are forecast paths of the center from the most trustworthy models.
The strongest winds will be along and to the east of the actual path. Mountains increase the amount of rain. Here is a topographic map of the Island of Jamaica.
The mountains are somewhat lower on the west side of the island than in the east. The highest winds will likely avoid the capital of Kingston which may be helpful from the point of view of planning and executing the recovery. 

As of 10:15am, Melissa is temporarily stationary south of Jamaica. 
Satellite image is from 10:20am. The arrow points to Jamaica. The eye is filled with lightning. Winds have crept up since the last advisory at 5am and they are now 165 mph. The pressure is 908 mb. The satellite presentation is quite impressive. The general movement has been to the west at 3mph. 

The storm is forecast to begin its delayed turn to the north later today. The storm should be Cat 5 when it reaches Jamaica with catastrophic results. The nation-by-nation guidance is below:
Hopefully, non-profits and the U.S. government are working to put a recovery plan in place for Jamaica. 






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