Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Today's Tornado Forecast

While hail up to 2 inches in diameter and thunderstorm-generated wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger are possible with the severe thunderstorms, I want to focus on the tornado threat because there is a real chance that strong tornadoes will occur this afternoon and tonight. 

The tornado threat, and especially the strong tornado threat, has been shifted to the south. 

This forecast, from the NWS's Storm Prediction Center, shows where tornadoes are likely to between about 1-2pm on the west to about 4am (on the east, I've cut the graphic off where I believe the tornado risk ends tonight). Here is the threat translated to my four-point scale:
  • Brown, significant risk of tornadoes.
  • Yellow, an enhanced risk of tornadoes and the hatching indicates some of the tornadoes could be strong. 
  • Red, a high risk of tornadoes. The hatching indicates some could be strong. 
However, my personal opinion of where the highest threat for strong tornadoes matches a web-based forecast called "Nadocast" ( @nadocast on Twitter). 
I don't think there is much chance of a strong tornado before ~4pm and the risk will continue to about midnight. I've cut off the east side of the forecast as I think the computer extended the forecast too far to the east. If you live in the black/red areas above, or in the hatched areas on the SPC forecast, it is very important to make sure you are ready to respond if a tornado warning is issued!

Now is time to double check your tornado procedures and make sure your shelter area is ready to go. 

Because there is a high risk of tornadoes during darkness, please seriously consider StormWarn. For just $25 per year, you'll get a phone call 24 hours a day if you are in the direct path of the tornado but only if you are in the direct path. Unlike a weather radio, you will not be awakened for a forecast of hail 20 miles away. Nighttime tornadoes are more than twice as deadly as tornadoes during daylight. Please consider StormWarn. It may save your life. 

I will update this forecast during the late morning. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.