Sunday, September 12, 2021

More on Tropical Storm Nicolas

Flooding and High Winds Likely
Here is the forecast track of the center of the storm. The National Hurricane Center has increased its forecasted wind speed to near hurricane force before landfall. Because of the angle of Nicolas' approach, I don't think storm surge will be a major factor.

Hurricane watch is the orange outline from Corpus Christi to Palacious.

What will be a major factor is rain and flooding. 
The NWS has further upped the forecasted rainfall amounts. This will lead to major flooding for the reasons explained below. 

Wider view:
Rainfalls near the Texas coast may be in excess of ten inches in places. 

Making it worse is the fact most all of the area already has saturated soils (blues). 
So, serious flooding is likely assuming this scenario plays out. 

However, my confidence in the forecast, at this point, is less than I had with Ida. Stay tuned, please. 

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