Sunday, April 28, 2013

Climate Forecasts Versus Reality

In an interesting story from Canada (h/t Anthony Watts), Dr. James Hansen, a global warming activist stated,

He said many governments, not just Canada's, are denying what science is telling them and ignoring the long-term climate change projections.

Okay, let's take a look at Dr. Hansen's own projection using Dr. Hansen's own temperature (a data set known as GISS) data:

The blue triangles are Dr. Hansen's forecast of world land+ocean temperatures. The black are the actual temperatures. Note that the real world is far cooler (0.5°C which is a lot) than it was predicted to be by Dr. Hansen.

Here is a more recent set of forecasts made by 31 climate models (the thin colored lines) and the satellite temperature observations (black circles) and the ground-based land+ocean temperatures (a/k/a HADCRUT, the metric you consistently see on this blog and in my presentations):
Again, far too warm. You can see the above graph and more model comparisons (all of which demonstrate the climate forecasts are too warm) at Dr. Judy Curry's blog here.

"Ignoring the long-term climate change predictions." Given the track record of these forecasts, I'd say people are acting rationally.

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