Here is an example. The U.S. GFS's ten-day forecast of rainfall centered on Kansas:
And, here is the, often more accurate, European model for the same period as above. It is significantly different.
Meteorologists try to get around all of this by running a bunch of models together and averaging them. This is the European ensemble run from last night's models.
So, what can we say? I am confident of substantial rains (≥1.5 inches) over all but the northeast 1/5th of Kansas over the next ten days. If the low pressure system after Day 5 starts slowly drifting over the Plains, as some of the models are showing, then the heavier amounts shown in the European model may well come true. If so, it would be a godsend for the 2016 winter wheat crop.