Current Hurricane Norma (Pacific) that has undergone rapid intensification. There is quite a bit of news today pertaining to a new study of rapid intensification of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin (Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf). The study is here .  However, many of the news reports are just wrong. For example, The worst headline (immediately above) unsurprisingly came from Associated Press' Seth Borenstein (Seth is an activist in the role of reporter).  The bottom line: the paper does not  say that hurricanes are getting stronger.  What it does say is that rapid intensification (when wind speeds ramp up from, say, 75 mph to 130 mph overnight) is more common than it was 40-50 years ago. The author correctly notes there was more uncertainty as to wind speeds at that time than today, but I believe her results are essentially correct. But that is far less of a problem than one that would need an "urgent warning." As is too often the case with global warming alarmists, ...

Highlights of the most recent two reviews at Amazon: Tornados have always interested me, so I ordered this book to learn more about the history of tornados, meteorology, and storm warnings. We've come so far since the 1950s, and it's an incredible story! Very well explained, I thought, and easy to understand... I bought the book in Kindle format some years ago. However, I love a real book and this book is worth reading over again. It is a great look into the history and evolution of the NWS storm warning system and highlights just how important this function is to the citizens of the US. A fascinating read, don't miss out on it. An all-true book that explains the evolution of the extreme weather warning system in the United States told in story form.  You can get it at your local book store or order from Amazon .  Warnings,  according to one list, is the #17 most popular "weather" book of the millennium. If you enjoy this blog, you are certain to enjoy my book. 

From Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. ..... This is a topic covered on this blog since 2019: A story linked to by Dr. Pielke quotes attorney and activist Monica Medina explaining that she was one of the originators of this terrible idea.  Here is the issue: A "disaster" is a single event. The Maui Fire was a billion-dollar disaster. The Camp Fire (CA) was a billion-dollar disaster. The Joplin Tornado was a billion-dollar disaster. Gathering disparate events over four days does not  a billion dollar disaster make. The purpose of these is to convince people that disasters are becoming more numerous and worse -- even though there is no genuine evidence that is true.  Unfortunately, NOAA used to be above this sort of thing. It is unfortunate everything in Washington has become so politicized. 

Will this developing hurricane bring desperately needed rain? Below is the latest Palmer Drought Index for the central and southern Great Plains and adjacent areas, substantial rain would be welcome. Some relief may be on the way in the form of a Pacific hurricane. Left colors are dry; right colors are wet.  Below is the forecast path for what will soon be Hurricane Norma.  In addition to giving a heads-up to resorts at Cabo on Day 5, the fact the storm will continue to move north northeast on Day 6 may allow it to be picked up so its moisture can move toward the Great Plains (below). It is too soon to know the exact evolution of this weather system but Pacific hurricanes usually provide more moisture to the central Plains than Gulf storms. We'll keep an eye on it for you.

Rainfall will be sparse the next five days west of the Mississippi River.

The National Weather Service continues to have problems issuing timely, accurate tornado warnings. The latest example comes from Florida, specifically the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area in the early pre-dawn hours of Thursday.  I saw this tweet Friday afternoon. I had issued my own version of tornado warnings on that supercell thunderstorm but had assumed it had not produced a tornado. Obviously, it had.  At 12:03am EDT, I notified readers that the tornado potential in west central Florida was rapidly increasing. There was no tornado watch at the time and no tornado warnings were in effect. At 12:06pm, since I reserve the terms "watch" and "warning" to the NWS so there will not be confusion with their warnings, I issued my version of a tornado warning. It was a straightforward situation with a hook echo and strong rotation in the Doppler data (not shown). Not the arrow points toward Oldsmar, where the photo at the top was taken.  The time below the graphics is Cent...

“Your life is filled with miracles of science and technology because Western civilization has repeatedly beaten back the forces of barbarism, totalitarianism and ignorance. For most of history, most of humanity lived as slaves in poverty. Free enterprise and hydrocarbons ended that.” -  Andrew Côté While these two specifically pertain to Australia, they apply equally to the United States: “… destroying the landscape with inferior technologies that cost more and do not achieve the desired policy aim of Net Zero is insane."   -  Michael de Percy "I am not sure many people are fully aware of the massive engineering changes currently underway in our rural landscape. The changes are on a scale never attempted in this country before, and it is swallowing obscene amounts of money for minimal benefit and, indeed, no proof it will improve the climate." -- Robert Onfray