Several newspapers have run stories in the last few days pertaining to what type of tornado season (mild, bad) their readership areas might have this year. As you know, I do not post long-range forecasts on the blog because there seems to be so much interest -- I'm going to offer my thoughts on the topic as it pertains to Kansas as the Wichita Eagle  (screen capture above) ran one of those stories.  Based on some work I did a few years ago, Kansas tends to get more and worse tornadoes when El Nino/La Nina are neutral. This feature is known as ENSO and it is forecasted to be neutral this spring season. The spaghetti on the forecast graph (below) is the result of various oceanographic models' forecasts of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial east Pacific. Almost all forecast neutral conditions this spring. We will likely have an El Nino (positive temperatures > 1°C) by autumn.  The article also points out that high contrasts in soil moisture can promote tornadoes. ...

Remember these words, written in 2009? They were part of the article (headlined above): Barack Obama has only four years to save the world. That is the stark assessment of NASA scientist and leading climate expert Jim Hansen who last week warned only urgent action by the new president could halt the devastating climate change that now threatens Earth. Crucially, that action will have to be taken within Obama’s first administration, he added. Eleven years later, the climate 'emergency' yields headlines like this: The above linked article, published July 2, is here . We are producing more food than the world can consume. Some emergency! This is the essential nature of catastrophic global warming movement: Regardless of how many times they are comically wrong, their faith, their confidence never wanes.

"I may frequently be wrong, but am never in doubt."         -- Sir George Jessel [bumped due to subsequent news stories] There is a New York Times   story today that proclaims more Americans are worried about global warming. I'm hoping that climate 'scientists' will, one day soon, begin to understand that science is not about polls or popular opinion. Science is about what can be objectively proven. The point I wish to make in this posting is that global warming has more of the characteristics of a religion than a science. The New Testament (Mark 13:32) quotes Jesus as saying He does not know when the world will end. Only his Father knows. Now, suppose some Christian group (call them Religion A) proclaimed they had figured out the world will end tomorrow. Tomorrow comes and goes. Then, Religion A says they were wrong in their calculations and it will end Monday. Monday comes and goes. Finally, Religion A says, oops, give us one more chance. The w...

Dr. Judith Curry, yesterday, posted an item on her blog that coincidentally coincides with what I posted at 10:30am Tuesday . The bottom line: Dr. Curry is right. As she points out, climate science does not even understand what caused the major (natural!) warming of the world's temperature from 1910 to 1944. And, because we don't understand natural climate variations, we have no genuine scientific basis upon which to make climate forecasts, manmade or otherwise. This is why all of the catastrophic tipping points and forecasts listed in Tuesday's posting are wrong. Here is yet another ' tipping point ' that was published about the same time as I posted my piece. As I wrote in 2013, global warming is " tipsy from tipping points ." It is, of course, your right to believe whatever you wish. But, if you believe these forecasts of imminent doom -- in spite of their abysmal track record -- you are believe in what has morphed into quasi-religion. Not a...

Sunday, I posted the infamous " Snowfalls Are a Thing of the Past " article. Here's another (h/t Ross McKitrick), published in 2004. It is from Great Britain's Guardian.  Read the item below and remember, all of this was forecasted to have occurred by the end of this year: "Major European cities sunk beneath rising seas"? "Britain plunged into a Siberian climate"? breckenridge.com As I write this, there is a climate meeting in progress in -- cough, cough -- Breckenridge. Note that these are held in resort areas: Bali, Montreal, Cancun, Paris, Milan, etc., etc. While the rest of us are supposed to be cutting our carbon footprints, the climate alarmists fly across the world, enlarging theirs. Have scientists involved in climate never heard of Skype? This "settled science" has many more characteristics of a religion and a political movement than science.  As Glenn Reynolds puts it, I'll believe global warming is a...

The 2000 article is here .