Deficient Tornado Warning in Arkansas

By -
I am a huge fan of the National Weather Service (NWS) and its core mission of collecting data and making it available, maintaining the meteorological infrastructure and its vital mission of forecasts and storm warnings for the public-at-large. I even wrote a book on the subject. I've called the NWS "one of the few essential federal agencies."

Unfortunately, in recent years, the NWS's tornado warnings have become less accurate both in terms of tornado detection (known as "probability of detection" or PoP) and "lead time" (the amount of time between the warning and the arrival of the tornado). The National Weather Service, and its parent agency NOAA, have a published lead time goal of 13 minutes. The NWS routinely achieved this from 2005 to 2011. 

Because the United States lacks a Natural Disaster Review Board (other nations have them), we don't know all of the reasons the tornado warning program has deteriorated. But, I believe it is valuable to document these cases so that these issues may eventually be solved. I published an analysis of a Georgia situation yesterday.

Another example of the deteriorated tornado warnings occurred last night in Arkansas. The tornado in the Hot Springs Village had a lead time of, at best, negative one minute. At left, is the NWS's survey done today and, at right, last night's tornado warning. The reason I stated "at best" is because at least two witnesses (one a meteorologist) said the tornado began to the west of the highway (see map on survey image). If correct, it would mean the tornado lead time was worse. 
To be clear, this was not a situation that lent itself to 13 to 15 minutes of lead time (the research shows that amount is ideal). But, at least some positive lead time was possible. 

Radar Review
At 7:51pm, there was rotation (right panel) but it did not match well with the reflectivity data (left). I would not have issued a warning at this point. 

However, at 7:53, an absolutely clear sign of a tornado presents itself. 
At right, the velocity data shows "gate-to-gate" rotation -- a clear tornado signal. At least, the circle shows the G2G rotation is now at the northeast tip of the developing hook echo. A tornado warning should have immediately been issued. Allowing a minute or so to get the warning out, that would have allowed a positive four minutes of lead time. That is enough time to dash into a shelter. 

The rotation continued on subsequent radar frames. 

News reports say there was one injury. That was lucky given it was a a strong tornado. 

There is legislation before both houses of Congress to create a Natural Disaster Review Board. If you support the concept, please contact your congressional delegation via their web sites. It is easy to do. 

Comments

  1. AnonymousMarch 15, 2024 at 9:59 PM

    Definitely need a national disaster review board in Arkansas, as a tornado survivor in 2007 in gassville,I didn't even hear the siren and I was 2 blocks from it

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousMarch 16, 2024 at 8:15 AM

    yes i agree…we need more attention on providing resources for our community for a review board !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousMarch 16, 2024 at 9:33 AM

    Strong words from someone who can’t even get the location of the tornado right. It was Hot Springs Village. Not Little Rock Village. It was a rapidly changing storm and if you were watching local meteorologists then they were already telling you to get to a safe spot long before the storm ever made it there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mike SmithMarch 16, 2024 at 9:45 AM

      Thanks so much for the location correction. Of course, you are correct.

      As to the substance of your comment, please keep in mind that in the vast majority of localities, sirens aren't sounded and television doesn't go to tornado coverage until a NWS tornado warning is issued. Thus, people who are unaware could be injured.

      I salute the television meteorologists who used their knowledge to issue their versions of a tornado warning before the NWS issued theirs.

      Finally, please keep in mind the people of central Arkansas being awakened by a false tornado warning earlier this year. https://www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com/2024/01/about-thursday-nights-tornado-warning.html

      Thanks again.

      Delete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Hilary's Forecast Path Shifts West; Updated 9:20am PDT

By -
Image
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding.  Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map.  In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state.  Here is the updated  (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state.  The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
Read more

Dangerous Travel Conditions - People Reportedly Stranded

By -
Image
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area.  While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge).  Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert.  Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding.  Here is a map of current watc
Read more

Update on Tornado and Wind Potential; 12 Noon PDT

By -
Image
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday.  --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon.  Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far.  Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses.  Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased.  Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not  traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway. 
Read more