Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Hawaii Hurricane Update

There are two tropical systems that will affect Hawaii and Hawaiian waters the next few days:

click to enlarge
I have circled the radius of strongest wind gusts but there will be gusty winds several hundred miles from the center of the storm. Flooding rains will occur on the Island of Hawaii, Maui and Lanai with the east sides of Oahu and Kauai having the heaviest rains if this forecast is correct. There will also be scattered power failures.

Julio is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow and continue at minimum hurricane intensity when it gets near the Island of Hawaii. However, it is far too soon to make a specific forecast of location and intensity of Julio.

A number of news sites have talked about how "rare" it is for tropical storms and hurricanes to affect Hawaii. That is true with one exception: El Nino years. When an El Nino occurs in the Pacific Ocean (warmer than normal water along the equator from South America to the central Pacific region), Hawaii  experiences tropical weather systems. We have a weak El Nino in progress at the present time, a tropical system would not be unexpected. What is unusual is two in close proximity.

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