No Reason to Worry About a Hurricane in the Gulf

The blogosphere has lit up this evening with, in my opinion, irresponsible forecasts of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in nine days. This is based on the U.S. Global Forecast Model (GFS) which forecasts 9 out of every two hurricanes -- i.e., wildly overforecasts hurricanes.

Here is what the most accurate model in the world (ECMWF) shows in nine days. A hurricane off the coast of Baja:

Here is what the same model shows in the Gulf of Mexico:
In terms of hurricanes: A big fat nothing!

It is not impossible a hurricane could occur in the Gulf. But "panic" (an unfortunate choice of words by one NWS office) is wildly inappropriate. At this time, there is absolutely nothing to panic about.


  1. I used to read Dr. Jeff Master's blog: as in the early days he used to focus on the science (and art) of forecasting tropical storms. Unfortunately he spends a lot of time as a shrill for the climate change movement. It's just a matter of time he causates the lack of hurricanes hitting FL with climate change. Most of the commentators there LIVE LIVE LIVE for Atlantic hurricanes so they've been bored the last two years - is this the "blogosphere" you refer to?

  2. Yes, plus Drudge, Facebook and Twitter. There was an NWS office yesterday that put out what I thought was an unfortunate tweet on this subject.


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