8pm Update: Flash Flood Forecast Now Until 7am CDT Sunday Red is a high risk of flash flooding.  7am Sunday to 7am Monday Remember: Never  walk or drive through flooded areas.  5:40pm Damaging Wind Forecast NWS just updated their wind forecast. The area outlined in purple is forecast to have occasional 80-100 mph gusts in the 7-11pm CDT time frame with frequent 60-70mph gusts. If correct, there will be widespread power outages!  Prepare accordingly.  I will provide updates on Twitter/X  @usweatherexpert . Today is another day when tornadoes are possible. The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and, where indicated by hatching, any tornadoes could be strong.  There is also an enhanced  risk of damaging winds with gusts above 75 mph in the red area. The yellow/hatched area has a significant risk of gusts to 75 mph. Without the hatching, gusts to 60 mph are forecast to occur. 

There was a lot of controversy in the Midwest Wednesday morning as to whether the forecast tornadoes in the Midwest would develop because of heavy morning rains in the region. Tornadoes require "instability," defined as air rising -- perhaps violently ( > 100 mph) in extreme cases -- if it is warm and humid near the ground and cold aloft. Conventional wisdom is that extensive morning rain diminishes tornado potential.  But that's often not true. Take look at the radar of the same region eight hours later.  While the morning rain may keep the air less unstable, I've documented that some of the very biggest tornadoes and tornado outbreaks are preceded by after midnight on the day of the event. My speculation is the evaporating rain lowers the "lifting condensation level" (LCL). Lower LCL's = tornadoes more likely, other factors equal.  Here are just some of the events I have examined: April 27, 2011 (see radar image nearby from 4:49am).  April 3, 1974...

The area in pink is where "catastrophic" flooding is forecast to occur per the National Weather Service's (relatively) new National Water Center. If I were in the pink area, I would be prepared to evacuate. Whatever you do, do not attempt to drive or walk through flooded areas -- that is the #1 reason for flood fatalities. 

...than a European government official using the words "utopia" and "confiscation" in the same sentence The criticism of Elon Musk the past week has mostly been from pathetic people who have created nothing and contributed nothing. They seem unaware  envy and greed are two of the Seven Deadly Sins.  Socialism and communism only benefit the politicians. Want proof? Here are pictures of socialist Elizabeth Warren criticizing Musk from the back seat of a limo (probably paid for by us). Here is a photo of her getting off a private jet.  Unlike government, no one has even been forced to purchase anything created or produced by Musk. We don't have to buy Starlink. We don't have to purchase a Tesla. We don't have to use Twitter/X. He has become a trillionaire by producing these things, creating resuseable rockets (when NASA was laughing at the concept ), and even rescuing astronauts. We made Musk a trillionaire because he created products and services people ...

I am providing additional coverage @usweatherexpert on Twitter. I invite you to join us.  Watches are now out from Illinois to eastern Kansas corresponding to the forecast below -- which is still valid. The red area has a high risk of tornadoes, some of which are forecast by the NWS to be strong or even violent.  The yellow area has an enhanced  risk of tornadoes and some could be strong.  The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes and some could be strong.  There is also a risk of damaging winds throughout this area.  The tornadoes will likely have faster than usual forward movement which may mean less advance notice than usual. It is vital to keep up on the latest weather information throughout the day and, in Indiana and Ohio, into tonight. 

The pale blue is where isolated flooding is forecast to occur. The deep blue is where widespread, significant flooding is forecast. This is valid for the next three days.  UPDATE: Tropical Storm Arthur has formed in the Gulf, just off the Texas coast.  X = location of center of Arthur. D = tropical depression. Orange = radius of 35 mph sustained winds. 

 The first tornado watch of the day is in effect due to a line of severe thunderstorms moving south southeast in the Midwest.  As of 9am, the radar shows the position of the line and the tornado watch (orange).  If you are in the tornado watch, please monitor the weather for the latest warnings.  More tornadoes are possible with a second area of thunderstorms this afternoon. I will post more later this morning.