Compare the satellite image below to the images from earlier this morning.  NO = New Orleans.   Winds are up to 100 mph and pressure is down to 976 millibars. The rapid intensification is now in progress.  Update 1:15pm , The ECMWF model, statistically the world's most accurate, has just come in with a forecast of higher wind speeds than its previous run and the runs of other global models. It is now forecasting a narrow strip of 100+mph winds as far north as I-10 west of New Orleans.  Dr. Knabb is Director the National Hurricane Center.  Please factor this information into your decision-making.  What I Recommend If You Are in the Higher Wind or Storm Surge Areas Evacuate if you are told to do so.  Before you leave, turn off water at the main valve and turn off electricity at the master switch.  Make a hotel reservation well inland.   If possible, evacuate to the west due to flooding concern over Mississippi and the eastern half of Louis...

Update at 10:50am: We now have an eye for the first time with Ida. Pressure has dropped two millibars. I believe we will see rapid intensification the rest of the day.  -- original posting -- Hurricane Preparations Should Be  Rushed to Completion in Louisiana While the storm has not yet intensified as measured by the Hurricane Hunters, the appearance on satellite is worsening (looking like wind speeds will start to rapidly increase). The winds are 75 mph and the pressure is 984 millibars.  For the first time since Ida formed, there is the appearance of eye formation.  Here is the latest official forecast. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting peak winds of 130 mph at landfall. I believe that 140 mph winds are still on the table.  The wind pattern (below) will look something like this but do not take this as exact. It could shift a little east or west and local effects can make the winds slightly more or less.  Hurricane preparations should be complet...

There is an enhanced risk of damaging winds in the Upper Midwest today.  The red area has an enhanced risk and the hatching denotes wind gusts of 75 mph or more are forecasted to occur. The yellow area has a significant risk of gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  There is also a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area.  I would be especially diligent in the Twin Cities where the wind and tornado risk means there is a risk of significant power outages and damage. 

Category 4 Hurricane Expected to Strike  Louisiana Sunday - Forecast Unchanged .  Scroll down for full details. Quick note at 10:36pm. The satellite imagery plus the Hurricane Hunter data indicates the strengthening has begun.

Hurricane Warning for New Orleans and Much  of the  Louisiana Coast The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and I are in agreement that Ida will be a Cat 4 at landfall. There will be a dangerous storm surge of up to 11 feet above sea level which does not even count tides and waves.  A number of evacuation orders have gone out this afternoon. I urge you to follow them.  NHC's latest "cone" forecast.  Currently, Ida has winds of 80 mph and a central pressure of 985 millibars. Color code: Red is a hurricane warning.  Blue is a tropical storm warning (winds of 40 to 73 mph). Pink is a hurricane watch.  Yellow is a tropical storm watch.  M = major hurricane (winds ≥ 111 mph). H = hurricane/ S = tropical storm.  NHC is forecasting sustained winds of 140 mph winds at landfall with gusts to 167 mph. Mobile homes will fail at far lower wind speeds and many site-built homes will experience serious damage. To put it another way, these winds are similar to a...

-- I am predicting that Hurricane Ida will be Category 4 intensity when it makes landfall in Louisiana Sunday. -- Ida is moving back over water from a pass over the Isle of Youth as indicated in this NOAA satellite image (below). The lightning during the past hour indicates the storm is strengthening. The developing eye is circled. The National Hurricane Center's 1pm wind speed was 75 mph but data from the Hurricane Hunters and its appearance on satellite indicate that winds may be a little more than 80 mph now. The central pressure is dropping rapidly and is now down to 986 millibars. The ECMWF, traditionally the best model, just came in stronger than any of the others. The director of the National Hurricane Center a few minutes ago tweeted that "any category" is possible with Ida. Meteorologists have a way of dancing around these things so I'll just say it: It is my professional opinion that Ida will be a Category 4 at landfall.  It is possible it will be a 5 but I ...

Mother Nature seems stuck in a rut: tornadoes in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. I urge people in the area tinted in brown to keep up on the latest weather information as the afternoon and evening progress.