Yesterday, a member of a railroading blog posted this comment directed toward my forecasts of the last week: I don't know how meteorologists such as yourself don't lose hair trying to predict snowfall amounts. So much variable in models for snow amounts Thank you, that is greatly appreciated.

For all of my Kansas readers... Take a look at this computer model from the 6pm computer run this evening. Huge  snows in all directions but Wichita in an accumulation hole (arrow)! Mother Nature, why do you torture meteorologists so? That's about 3 to 5 inches in Wichita but there is no real good meteorological reason for this hole to exist. The new plume model that came in about the same time says 9 inches (down from 13 earlier). Earlier I said 7 to 14 inches. I'm thinking 5 to 11 is a better bet now -- but with gusts to 50 mph this storm will still be a very big deal.

Bet you never thought you'd read me blogging about fashion. Me, neither. But, here goes. In 2001, I got to see Mel Brooks'  The Producers  on Broadway with the original cast. An indelible impression was made when the character of Roger DeBris (played by the inimitable Gary Beach) appeared in his evening gown. Can't exactly say why, but I thought of that wonderful evening several times when watching tonight's Oscars®: Of course, they all look wonderful in them. No changes in the storm outlook. Back to that in the morning. 

The photo on Carl's Twitter account Carl Reiner just tweeted,  I was so excited to discover I was not in the in memoriam!

In Kansas. The storms are moving north northeast. and in southwest Oklahoma. Yes, those are severe thunderstorm warnings for large hail.

Update: 7:55pm: AccuWeather reports more than 200 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in this area. ORIGINAL POSTING: I do not usually post these messages from the Storm Prediction Center because they are pretty technical but they are forecasting an area of enlarging thunderstorm over the Panhandles, northeast New Mexico and far southwest Kansas.  This will cause visibility to drop to hear zero with very rapid accumulations. Please do not attempt to travel through this! AccuWeather Regional Radar at 7:20pm CST:

Thunderstorms now occurring in the Texas Panhandle. The cold front is moving south and deepening the depth of the cold air. The changeover to snow will occur in many areas overnight.