Posts

Greensburg's Recovery Continues

The  new hospital  has opened.  Congratulations, Greensburg on your great progress!

An Awful Forecast and Its Relation to Climate Prediction

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At left is NOAA's 30-day temperature forecast for December, 2009, and, at right, are the actual temperatures for December (click to enlarge).  You'll note the location of the warmest forecast temperatures (burnt orange colors) was where the coldest temperatures actually occurred (purples). This forecast was made in mid-November. The British Met Office, which uses a different technique than NOAA, also missed badly. Their miss comes as part of a string of terrible forecasts that has caused some to question  whether the Met Office should get out of the long range forecasting business. My experience with the NOAA and Met Office forecasts seems to indicate little, if any, skill and I can see the point of some critics to take these back into experimental mode until consistent skill can be demonstrated, which might be years in the future. That said, if we can't get the 15 to 45 day forecast correct what makes us think we can forecast the climate 50 months or 50 years into the...

An Article on Climate Science by a Real Climatologist

Roger Pielke, Sr. is both a meteorologist and the former state climatologist for Colorado.  He has some comments in an  illuminating article   pertaining to an article in Nature.

Now, We Are Getting Somewhere!

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These are Dow Chemical's new solar power shingles.  They can go on an ordinary roof using ordinary building techniques. As costs continue to come down for solar, it becomes a more practical alternative. My only question is how they would do in a hail storm. I have emailed Dow and will let you know if I get a response.

Here's Something You Don't See Every Day

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A tornado watch for southeast California and Arizona. UPDATE 5:43pm:  Tornado Warning near Blythe, California!  Average flight delays more than 3 1/4 hours at Las Vegas.  Southwest Airlines has grounded flights until 8pm Central time in the area due to high winds and thunderstorms. AccuWeather has a special video report  here. Update, 9:45pm:  There was indeed a tornado that crossed I-10 at Blythe blowing over semi's and causing other damage. Winds gusted to 94 mph at Ajo, Arizona.  A tornado warning was issued for the Scottsdale area.  Radar indicated a nice swirl in the area (see image below). The governor of Arizona has declared a state of emergency for the entire state. The swirl is near Scottsdale and is in the image east of I-17 and above the "F" in Fountain Hills. We now have reports of a tornado at the Desert Ridge Marketplace Mall in Scottsdale. This is across the street from the large J. W. Marriott Resort.  

Self-Reliance Post-Disaster

Glenn Reynolds makes excellent points about having several days of food and other supplies at your home in case of disaster. Given Katrina and the Haitian earthquake, this advice is especially timely.

Damaging Tornado in Northeast Texas

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Kate Bilo and I do a joint video report at  accuweather.com.     Reports of tornado damage in northeast Texas.  Here is the hook echo when the tornado crossed I-20.  A hook (light purple color) is a strong indicator of a tornado.  The fishhook-shaped echo indicates a tornado just north of Waskom, TX.  The damage was reported within minutes of this image.   PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER DURING THE NIGHT IF YOU ARE IN A TORNADO WATCH!