-- I am predicting that Hurricane Ida will be Category 4 intensity when it makes landfall in Louisiana Sunday. -- Ida is moving back over water from a pass over the Isle of Youth as indicated in this NOAA satellite image (below). The lightning during the past hour indicates the storm is strengthening. The developing eye is circled. The National Hurricane Center's 1pm wind speed was 75 mph but data from the Hurricane Hunters and its appearance on satellite indicate that winds may be a little more than 80 mph now. The central pressure is dropping rapidly and is now down to 986 millibars. The ECMWF, traditionally the best model, just came in stronger than any of the others. The director of the National Hurricane Center a few minutes ago tweeted that "any category" is possible with Ida. Meteorologists have a way of dancing around these things so I'll just say it: It is my professional opinion that Ida will be a Category 4 at landfall.  It is possible it will be a 5 but I ...

Mother Nature seems stuck in a rut: tornadoes in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. I urge people in the area tinted in brown to keep up on the latest weather information as the afternoon and evening progress. 

-- I Have Posted An Update Here --  -- original posting -- Hurricane Ida now has winds of 75 mph. The pressure, which was 991 at 10:20am is now down to 987, which is a rapid drop for that period of time.  Here is the 10am cone forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The amber at the bottom is the width of the tropical storm (≥40 mph) winds. Red is a hurricane warning. Pink is a hurricane watch. Yellow is a tropical storm watch. Ida is forecast to have 120 mph -- Category 3 -- winds at just before landfall.  While it could shift a little to the east or west, I'm showing the global ECMWF model's forecast to give you an idea of the size of the damaging wind field. While NHC forecasts 120 mph just before landfall, this model shows some additional strengthening right to landfall with gusts to 137 mph. My point is that this will be a dangerous, major hurricane. It would take only a very slight wobble to the east to put New Orleans in the worst of the winds....

Please click here for the 4:30pm Friday update .                                       -- original posting -- Hurricane Watch Has Been Issued for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Tropical Storm Watch for the Alabama coast. A major hurricane is in store for the northern Gulf Coast. The area from Beaumont through the Mississippi Coast should begin preparations (outlined below) and should watch this storm closely as it nears.  Hurricane Threats The National Hurricane Center's "cone" forecast is below. 10pm cone forecast. Hurricane watch is in pink. Yellow is the tropical storm watch. A guide to the "cone" map is below. It should be noted the Hurricane Center is forecasting wind speeds at landfall just 1 mph below Cat 3 status.  The new U.S. Global Forecast System model forecast is in and it is consistent with the National Hurricane Center's forecast. It depicts a 117 mph ...

If I were a resident of the area from Beaumont-Pt Arthur to SW Mississippi, I would be making plans to leave. My instinct is that Hurricane Ida could be a bad one. Recommendations below.  A bit of information about the forecast above.  Since the Hurricane Center released its forecast (top), the American Global Forecast System has released its ensemble tracks. It is very similar to the Hurricane Center's forecast. Below is the ensemble tracks from the morning model runs. Please don't put any particular weight on any of the lines.  Below is the ensemble from the overnight model runs. For three days out, this is a high level of model confidence.  Below is the earliest reasonable time for the arrival of tropical storm (>40 mph sustained winds) conditions. Hurricane "Ida" will likely cause flooding when it moves inland.  What would I do now if I were in this area? Contact infirm friends or family in the region . Come up with a plan to protect them should the...

I just love this photo. It is of Union Pacific's Big Boy and a Fults, Illinois cowboy on horseback pacing the great locomotive carrying the American flag last week. Today, the Big Boy will head west from Kansas City to Denver where it will spend the weekend.  Below is a photo I took of the Big Boy passing through Martin City, MO in December, 2019. The Big Boy is spectacular and well worth seeing.  P.S. I'm taking the weekend off from the blog after Hurricane Ida, the Tennessee flash flood and the almost around the clock storm coverage during the last month. There will be new content, so please check back. 

Somewhere from Corpus Christi to Mobile, it looks like a major hurricane is in the offing. The very latest data looks like the best chance of a landfall is over Louisiana or Mississippi sometime Sunday or Sunday night. Please see preparation suggestions at the bottom.  Pay no attention to the colors or line thicknesses. This just gives an idea of possible paths.  Based on data coming in this evening, I believe it is safe to say the Texas coast from Corpus Christi, south is probably okay. The National Hurricane Center will send out a Hurricane Hunter tomorrow to measure the atmosphere in the eastern Caribbean. With that data, the meteorological models and meteorologists can begin to narrow down on the eventual path. Here's the problem: if the system moves at the speed currently forecasted by the models, the first official forecasts will be released 4 days, or perhaps slightly less, before landfall. for some, that might not be adequate time to prepare. For that reason, I u...

Lara Logan may be the finest reporter in the world. She has special expertise in the Middle East and suffered terribly for her coverage of the Arab Spring. I've never known her to be anything but objective and factual. That is why these tweets are so powerful. As a former member Marine Corps lieutenant colonel wrote yesterday, Our national institutions are corrupt, ineffective, and out of touch with regular America. Our government is bent on subduing the ordinary citizens it views as its greatest enemy. If there was any doubt about the illegitimacy of this police state, one only need look at the FBI’s latest fabricated terror plots or the Department of Homeland Security’s alarmingly evidence-free security  warnings that  we, the people are the main enemy of America. Expect to see DHS warnings that Americans who are unhappy with the United States’ wholesale surrender and foreign policy incompetence are potential terrorists. America is now a clown show where everyone who doesn’...

The amount of nonsense reported by the mainstream media about weather disasters continues is completely over-the-top these days. Here is the proof: Worldwide Fatalities Are Way DOWN    This data is from 1920 through June 30, 2021.  Worldwide Damage is DOWN Via Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. Data through June 20, 2021 On these pages, we've documented that disasters are not  worsening time after time. But Big Climate parasites know the money will dry up unless they hype storms and other weather conditions. 

While it is important for meteorologists to make accurate forecasts in situations of “partly cloudy and 70° with light winds,” it is vital to society that weather science provides timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of situations with the potential of considerable loss of life and extreme property damage.    The computer model and human forecasts in the hours leading up to the catastrophic flash flood west of Nashville Saturday morning, where more than 17 inches of rain fell in less than 10 hours, were inadequate. None of the “guidance” prior to the start of the rain signaled that a major event -- which would take at least 21 18 lives with three missing -- was about to occur. The 17 inches (and, up to four additional inches fell later in the day), if confirmed, will shatter the Tennessee's state rainfall record by four inches. So, this is exactly the type of situation where weather science needs to shine.  Below is the actual rainfall amounts for the morning ...

Wichitans and others in southern Kansas were treated to one of the most amazing sunsets ever . The sun illuminated a line of strong thunderstorms from below and the colors were almost indescribable. The red-colored clouds are the underside of the storm's cirrus anvil. Copyright 2021, Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC Not only were the ever-changing colors fantastic, note the abrupt cut off in light from the center of the frame to the upper right. This cut off could be seen all the way to Tulsa.  The lack of sunlight at upper right was due to the thunderstorm northwest of Wichita.