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Hailstorm "Marks Its Territory"

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Thursday, August 10, a massive hailstorm occurred in northwest Kansas. With stones of more than four inches in diameter, it did tremendous damage to homes, cars, trees and just about everything in its path. Below is a screen grab of the radar while the storm was still in progress along with the dual-polarization radar's near real-time estimate of hail size trailing behind. A supercell is a type of thunderstorm that causes the largest hail and strongest tornadoes. The supercell responsible for the giant hail was, at the time of the screen grab, just south of Great Bend, Kansas, nearly dead center in the state. Behind its path (i.e., to the northwest of the storm) are colored lines signifying the size. Near the town of WaKeeney the estimate is more than 4 inches. Thanks to Michael Armstrong of KOCO TV in Oklahoma City, and to Twitter, the high resolution satellite data shows a severe gash in the vegetation caused by the hailstorm. Hailstorms of that nature are not soon fo...

You MUST Have Proper Eye Protection to View the Eclipse

Until totality  occurs -- even at the "diamond ring" stage -- you can suffer serious, lifetime eye injuries by viewing Monday's eclipse without proper eye protection. Here is a story , from Oregon, about a man who viewed an eclipse without the proper protection and has suffered the rest of his life as a result.

What Happen If It Rains During the Eclipse?

With one week to go before the big event, what happens if it rains during the solar eclipse? I can tell you exactly. I know from painful personal experience. When America West Airlines, which was trying to quickly raise cash, dropped round-trip air-fares from Wichita to Honolulu to $199 (with children’s discounts), I decided we should vacation in Hawaii to see the 1991 eclipse. Unfortunately, in order to get into the path of longest totality, and be in area with a statistically low chance of clouds (I had checked), the best place to be was the channel between Maui and the Island of Hawaii. Our trip to Hawaii went fine. Two days later the big day came. We all got up at 4am and headed for the docks to board the ship that was going to take us to the path of totality. Unfortunately, the morning clouds – which are common in that part of Hawaii – were not breaking as forecast.  The boat was great. As advertised, they had a band and specially equipped telescopes.  ...

This Week's Forecast Rainfall and Rainfall Analysis

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Let's begin with the 7-day rainfall from the week just ended. Briefly, yellows are two inches or more and reds are at least five inches. There were amounts of more than ten inches northeast of Dallas, with much of it falling last night. One of the more important things is what you do not see: No substantial rain fell in the northern High Plains. That is, by far, the area of the United States that needs substantial rainfall. Meanwhile, and not far away, drying is needed in southern Wisconsin, where more substantial rain, is forecast this week. For the upcoming week, rainfall will be extremely widespread east of the Rockies.

Sunday Fun: Guess What You Would Have Gotten When You Opened the Can of Potato Chips?!

Answer here .

In Aviation News...

...the New England Patriots become the first NFL team to buy their own plane .

Dumb Headline of the Week

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More and more, the NYT is my go-to source for these.

Now That's An Accurate Forecast!

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I can't take credit for this one. Yesterday, I posted the NWS's 7-day rainfall forecast rather than making one of my own because it was so close to what I was thinking. Here is what was posted: I did say that I might have scooted everything a bit to the northwest, but otherwise, it was exactly my thinking. Well, the a look at this from about 7:30 this morning: The 5.7" bullseye in the forecast is just east of the town of Liberal. With more rain in the forecast, the NWS made a superb forecast and I was glad I was able to bring it to you. Unfortunately, more rain is on the way for some areas. I'll have more on that later this morning.

Extended Heavy Rain Threat in the Great Plains

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Let's begin with how much rain has already fallen. Here is the 24-hour rainfall ending at 7am. As much as four inches of rain fell in south central Kansas (southwest of Wichita). Unfortunately, that is just the beginning. Here is the NWS's 7-day rainfall forecast for the region, which is pretty close to my thinking. While I might scoot everything in this forecast about 30 miles to the northwest, it is close enough. The takeaway is there is the potential for significant flooding to develop over the next few days to one week. I will keep blogging about this as the storms generate.

Hurricane Franklin Bears Down on Mexico

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The orange represent current tropical storm force winds and dark brown is hurricane force winds. Current maximum sustained winds are 85 mph with higher gusts. By the time of landfall, coast winds may gust to 100 mph. There will be a 2-5' storm surge. In the inland higher terrain, serious flash flood is likely to develop.

Three-Day Heavy Rain Forecast for Great Plains

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Between now and 6pm Saturday, heavy rain is possible in the central Great Plains, primarily in Kansas south of Interstate 70 and the northeast half of Oklahoma. Note: I am not predicting that much rain over the entire area but rainfalls of more two inches will likely cover at least a third of the region. Important note: Additional rains will be likely beyond Saturday evening. I will try to update on that topic later today.

How Did the Last Flash Flood Risk Forecast Work Out?

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As you know, I try to go back and publicly validate my forecasts that are posted on my blog. On Friday, I published the flash flood risk forecast at right (below). At left is the amount of rain that actually fell. please click to enlarge On the map at left yellow equals 2.5 to 2.9 inches of rain which would be a reasonable threshold of flash flood risk. The red is 6 inches or more. East of Kansas City, nearly 9 inches fell. So, this would be rated a successful forecast.

Hurricane Warning for State of Vera Cruz, Mexico

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Franklin's center has moved off the Yucatan and the storm is now strengthening. The storm is now forecast to be a hurricane when it comes ashore during the pre-dawn hours Thursday.

Best Thing I Have Seen on Twitter in Quite a While

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Barbara Cook, Rest in Peace

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Two in one day. Glen Campbell and Barbara Cook. I saw The Music Man  for the first time (I think I was in eighth grade) with Bert Parks doing a great job as Professor Harold Hill. I instantly fell in love with the show. Barbara Cook was the original "Marion the Librarian" in The Music Man  on Broadway opposite Robert Preston, for which she won the Tony Award. I literally wore my copy of the cast album out. In 1969, I fulfilled my dream of playing Harold Hill at Luce Park Theatre Under the Stars in Kansas City. Here is Barbara singing from that original cast album. Rest in peace, Barbara.