From the St. Louis Post-Dispatch :

"Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?" From the Wall Street Journal : " ST LOUIS -  Minutes after a mile-wide tornado struck this city on an otherwise beautiful day this spring...." Funny how a large EF-3 tornado can ruin a "beautiful day."  City of St. Louis photo The Wall Street Journal is based in New York City. FEMA is based in Washington, DC. Perhaps one of the problems with national responses to major disasters is that inside the Beltway and on the Island of Manhattan, these disasters seem far away...almost remote. When FEMA recently fixed an important bit of Florida infrastructure, another NYC-based organization called Pro Publica was upset that Trump fixed it after 2.5 years of neglect under President Biden .  So, it is not surprising the WSJ  and FEMA often miss the point: thousands of people have suffered from the Maui wildfires, Hurricane Helene, the Los Angeles wildfires, the St. Louis Tornado and others because a clerk in a large Wa...

The  Kansas City Star  yesterday ran a story about the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Kansas City (KC) operations. Specifically, the newspaper is concerned that, with the recent layoffs, the NWS will not be able to continue to deliver what I call “corporate welfare.” Screen captures from the story:   NASCAR’s Kansas Speedway Races National Football League Draft So, the  Star  is worried the NWS will not be able to continue to provide on-site corporate welfare.    The National Weather Service’s mission is, and has always been, to provide data, forecasts and warnings to the  public.  If a business (e.g., Kansas Speedway) can use that same data for their operations, great. But, if they need on-site meteorologists or other specialized services,  that is what private-sector commercial weather organizations are for.  The newspaper evidently believes there isn’t sufficient money in the NASCAR or NFL’s budget to hire a meteorologist for ...

St. Louis is no stranger to major tornadoes and the deaths they can produce. It is the metropolitan area where the most tornado-related fatalities have occurred (Based on an AI search, more than 420). Friday, an EF-3 intensity tornado occurred in St. Louis and then moved across the Mississippi River into Illinois. Five were killed in St. Louis, 38 injured, and an estimated $1.6 billion in damage occurred. The tornado was a mile wide in places.  As we have been reporting for nearly 15 years, major issues have developed in the National Weather Service's (NWS) tornado warning program. Unfortunately, some of those issues occurred again Friday. There were also serious issues with local emergency management.  Unlike other nations, the U.S. does not have a National Disaster Review Board (modeled after the hugely successful National Transportation Safety Board) which would be able to do a comprehensive report. So, I am providing this more limited report in hopes that lesson...

Based on various news reports this morning, the death toll from yesterday's tornadoes ranges appears to have been 22.  CNN, London, KY The worst damage was in Kentucky, involving the towns of Somerset and London. That was nighttime tornado with 15 killed.  Marion (southern), Illinois was also hard-hit.  St. Louis, the city where more people have been killed by tornadoes than any other, reports five fatalities this morning. The blue area on the map above show approximate area affected by the tornado which first touched down around Clayton, went across north City and then into the Metro east near Alton. I am concerned about tornadoes the next few days, especially Sunday and Monday. I'll have separate forecasts up later today.  

The flooding continues and, in some places, rivers are still rising. As long-time readers know, we periodically discuss how far weather science has come and how businesses and other enterprises should use it as they would any other tool (accounting advice, legal advice, etc.). Let's take a look at March 31's flood forecast and compare it to what actually happened.  The Forecast Please note the lower map and the forecast of "more than ten inches." The upper map shows where major flooding was forecast. This was before the rains even began!   The Reality There is an amazing correlation between the forecast and the reality.  Below is a map of the current or peak forecast river stages. Purple dots are "major" or "record" flooding.  Again, an amazing correlation. With the exception of the major flooding on the Meramec River near St. Louis --  which was included in the flood forecast the next day (before the flooding began) -- the forecast is nearly perfe...

Post-Dispatch St. Louis' Ted Drewes has passed away. Virtually everyone in St. Louis or its frequent visitors of the past 60 years knew Ted and his amazing frozen custard.  When we moved to STL in 1979, our attorney and his wife took us out to dinner at Balaban's in the Central West End. The food and atmosphere were amazing. Then, Arthur said, "we aren't ordering dessert here. We're going out [someplace other than Balaban's]." We couldn't imagine to what he was referring.  A half-hour later we knew: Ted Drewes' frozen custard. With the first bite, we were officially St. Louisans. The custard stand has been in business 94 years and it's custard is amazing. I only got to speak briefly to Ted a couple of times but the reason it was amazing was because of the ingredients. Every day, they cut up a fresh pineapple. They used real coconut.  During our visit, Art and Fran informed us of the Ted Drewes etiquette: Get in line (there is always  a line, lo...

Tornado and Extreme Winds Forecast in the Midwest Please bookmark: www.mikesmithenterprisesblog.com We provide unique coverage of tornadoes, derechos and other types of extreme weather.  Also, I provide live coverage of tornadoes and other major storms here: @usweatherexpert Please call friends and relatives and make sure they are aware of these forecasts! 8:25pm - Northern Arkansas Tornado Watch  7:17:pm -  Illinois Tornado Watch  6:45pm - Wisconsin Tornado Watch  6pm Update - New Tornado Watch  There are tornado-bearing thunderstorms near the west side of this watch, so people need to be monitoring the weather the rest of the evening.  I will be updating on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  4:05pm Update This tornado watch until midnight includes Madison, Janesville and Milwaukee. Please monitor the weather closely in these areas. I also update on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  2:45pm Update I am confident tornadoes will occur in this watch. In additi...

It looks like tomorrow will be a major tornado and severe thunderstorm day in the Midwest. I recommend people start planning accordingly. There is a high  risk of damaging storms. Tuesday's Tornado Risk There is an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes  in the yellow, hatched area. There is a significant risk of tornadoes in the brown area.  Tuesday's Damaging Wind Risk Here is the color code for this forecast: Purple: a high risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. Red, hatched: there is an enhanced  risk of wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger.  Red (only): an enhanced  risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  Yellow: a significant risk of wind gusts of 60 mph or stronger.  There is also the risk of large hail in the above areas. A derecho may occur. Please factor this forecast into your plans Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Yesterday's forecast , unfortunately, worked out pretty well. It is almost certain there were more tornadoes in Kansas than sh...

The area in brown has a significant risk of tornadoes. There is also a better than average chance of damaging thunderstorm-generated winds.  This hail forecast is the probability of 1" diameter hail or larger. The area in red has an enhanced risk  of large hail. The yellow area has a significant risk. Where the hatching exists, the hail could be 2" or larger.  I will update the forecast this afternoon. 

Thunderstorms are developing in Kansas from the Flint Hills west to I-135. They are currently moving NNE but will turn more to the northeast over time. The yellow polygon is a severe thunderstorm warning as of 6:48pm. These storms may produce giant hail and/or tornado(s).  This will be the last blog update. Additional updates will be on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  Tornado Watch Until 1am Tornado, tennis ball-sized hail and gusts to 70 mph are possible in the yellow area, including Kansas City, Topeka, St Joseph, and Sedalia. First eastern Kansas storm of the evening is about 25 mi. SSW of Manhattan and will move NE.  For updates, please follow me on Twitter @usweatherexpert.  Severe Thunderstorm Watch Hail to 2", wind gusts to 65 mph, and -- perhaps -- a tornado is possible in the yellow counties of Kansas and Nebraska.  Mississippi Valley Threat In addition: Here is a severe thunderstorm watch with "a couple of tornadoes possible" that includes the St. Louis Bi-...