5pm Update.  Two more tornado watches, 3:45pm 12:20pm This tornado watch is in effect until 5pm.  There is a risk of tornadoes in two areas the rest of the day.  [12:20p update] Thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop to the west this afternoon with Dallas included in the yellow, hatched enhanced  tornado risk area. The brown area has a significant risk.  There is a second area with a significant risk of tornadoes in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, including St. Louis.  Please keep an eye on the weather if you live in these areas, especially the tornado watch area at the top. Reminder:

This is an individual's model/AI system that does a remarkably good job in many weather situations. It can be found @nadocast on Twitter/X.  Let me interpret the Nadocast forecast for you: as with others, hatching is the potential for EF-2 or stronger tornadoes. Brown is the significant tornado threshold. Yellow is an enhanced tornado risk and red is a relatively high risk. So, both St. Louis and the DFW Metroplex have significant tornado risks Wednesday. Little Rock should keep an eye out, too. I'll post the SPC outlook along with the updated Nadocast tomorrow morning to compare.  BTW: I am well  aware of yesterday's giant tornado forecast bust. I'm debating with myself and a couple of other weather people as to what to write about it.  Flood Forecast Widespread, serious flooding is forecast for the dark blue area tomorrow through Thursday. Purple dots indicate gaged rivers reaching "major" or "record" flood stages.  The light blue area is forecast ...

Good morning, everyone. For unexpected reasons, I am not able to write new content this morning, so I am moving this up by one day. Hope you find it interesting.  I simply can't imagine why anyone reads The New York Times.  So many of its global warming stories are just wrong.  Dead from weather-related disasters have decreased, not increased. See the graph below.  The above puts the lie to the story regardless of the additional fact that weather-related disasters and subsequent deaths are not decreasing due to climate (discussion here ). I suppose there will always be people who want to signal their virtue by reading the Times  but I can't imagine people read it for quality climate journalism. 

Hope you have found the information here at the blog and on Twitter/X useful today.  I'll have more tomorrow. 

7pm Update 5pm Update 4pm Update: Update at 3:35pm The tornado watch corresponding to the 2:40pm update (below) was just posted.  in addition... A tornado watch will be issued for the area outlined in red. There is a line of towering cumulus clouds (3:35p) that will form the basis of strong thunderstorms by early evening.  Update at 2:40pm A tornado watch will be issued for the area outlined in red: parts of western Wisconsin. the southeast half of Minnesota and northern Iowa. The NWS SPC has, within that area, outlined an area from the Twin Cities to about Ames, IA where the potential for strong or violent tornadoes exists. I will post the tornado watch when it is issued.  First Tornado Watch of the Day, 12:40pm Please note: in addition to tornadoes, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph (power failures likely) and 3.5" hail are likely to occur.  --- 12:45pm, forecast below is still valid.  Subtle Changes to The Tornado Outlook for This Afternoon and Evening If you wil...

This forecast has been updated .  Color code: The red, hatched area has a high  risk of strong tornadoes.  The yellow, hatched area has an enhanced risk of strong tornadoes.  The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes.  It is recommended that outdoor furniture, children's toys and other items that can be blown about be brought indoors. Giant hail is likely with any thunderstorm in these areas, so put your car in the garage.  Please make sure you keep up on the weather in these area.  I will update the forecast this afternoon. Reminder, I provide additional information on Twitter/X @usweatherexpert. 

2pm Monday to 1am Tuesday  In my 4-point tornado risk scale: Extreme [not displayed today] High (red) Enhanced (yellow) Significant (brown)

This forecast has been updated. Please scroll up.  This Afternoon and Evening The brown area has a significant risk of tornadoes. There will be a few supercells in the High Plains and any one of them may begin rotating. Please keep in mind that my 4-point tornado risk scale is: Significant risk Enhanced  High Extreme (which is rare) Monday 2pm to Midnight There has been a lot of talk in the media about the risk of tornadoes on Monday. My forecast differs from some: Here is the color code: The red area has a high risk of tornadoes and some could be strong.  Orange has an enhanced risk and one or two could be strong.  Peach has a significant risk of tornadoes.  Of course, I will update this forecast Monday morning. 

This is a photo of a New Mexico Roadrunner.  Konrad Wolte The question is: did the roadrunner make it to Acme (NM) before the tornado?! At least we now know the location where the roadrunner and Wile E Coyote cartoons were filmed! fireybirdything

More than five inches of rain are forecast to fall over southeast Kansas and parts of southwest Missouri as well as a small part of southeast Oklahoma. This area has been fairly wet the past few weeks go flooding is possible. Please keep this in mind if you live in these areas. 

We have good news: next week, the National Weather Service's (NWS) office in Omaha will resume launching weather balloons twice per day. But, the attempt to overplay the current -- significant -- issues continues.  The headline , from yesterday, is simply wrong. There is no severe weather forecasting done at the University of Wisconsin -- Madison.  Lots of useful research, including the corrections between satellite data and extreme weather, is done but not forecasting.  The article talks about their satellite archive -- which is important -- but NOAA keeps a similar archive.  My point is that there is plenty to worry about at this time but inflating the problems does no one any good. 

Please note the forecast is for strong  tornadoes. The geographic area covered is a little larger than earlier forecasts. Please keep up on the weather the rest of this afternoon and into the evening if you are in these areas.  2:55pm update : Here is a more specific forecast of where the strong tornadoes are forecast to occur -- the yellow, watched area. The brown area has a significant chance of tornadoes. 

From the Department of Irony: Is there nothing upon which Congress won't waste our money?!

Gates' Gunk May Have Far Reaching -- Negative -- Effects Bill Gates and one of his "collection" of private jets Photo from Wijet I hardly know where to begin with this one.  Bill Gates, a man with far more money than sense, wants to "modify solar radiation" to "cool" the world. We would be far better off from a climate perspective if Gates merely gave up his private jet travel but he -- likely most other global warming alarmists -- suffers from extreme hypocrisy. He believes you and I should eat bugs (literally) while he lives the highest of the high lives and has palled around with Jeffery Epstein.  As Newsweek  reports:   It's worth noting that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has provided funding to companies developing insect-based foods and associated technologies. Gates' Gunk scheme is particularly ironic when one considers climate science won't provide an answer to the most basic climate question: an estimate of earth's idea...

Please keep up on the weather and note that, in addition to tornadoes, softball-sized hail  is also forecast to fall.  --- original posting --- This time, it is the Texas Panhandle.  The brown area is where there is a significant chance of tornadoes from mid-afternoon to about 10pm. Please monitor the weather in these areas.