Today and Monday's Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast

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For today:

Tornado risk, 5% is the significant threshold. Fifteen percent is quite high and the hatched area is a forecast of where violent tornadoes will occur.


This is a forecast of where damaging wind (≥58 mph) gusts will occur. The significant threshold is 15%.

Very, very large hail is expected in the hatched area (≥2") and I wouldn't be surprised if baseball-sized stones fall.

For Monday, the combined probabilities (i.e. tornado, large hail or damaging winds) look like this:

Comments

  1. ToddMOMay 19, 2013 at 8:18 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  2. ToddMOMay 19, 2013 at 8:19 AM

    This Sunday afternoon beginning at 3PM is the Joplin, MO High School graduation ceremony out at Missouri Southern State University.

    ReplyDelete
  3. BookwormMay 19, 2013 at 10:02 AM

    Todd, the first thing that came to mind when I looked at these maps was: "Oh, no, not Joplin, and not today of all days." I know it is not the exact anniversary of the tornado but it is the "same" Sunday.

    I hope and pray it does not turn out to be "deja vu all over again" and that everyone stays safe.

    Elaine

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ToddMOMay 19, 2013 at 11:12 AM

      Elaine, it is a bit of "dejavu". I went to church this morning. We had prayer over today's possible event.

      Delete
  4. Mike SmithMay 19, 2013 at 11:07 AM

    Jaime Green, who was shooting a wedding in Joplin that day (I tell her story in "When the Sirens Were Silent") and was caught in the tornado, is shooting an outdoor wedding at the arboretum in Belle Plaine, KS this afternoon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ToddMOMay 19, 2013 at 11:15 AM

      I have your book Mike and there is a bit of irony here.

      Delete
  5. ToddMOMay 19, 2013 at 11:09 AM

    I can not for the life of me remember Joplin, MO ever being in a moderate risk day for two days in a row, meaning on Sunday and Monday.

    ReplyDelete

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