Four Days of Tornado Threat

As feared, this is going to be a very busy severe weather week. Major tornadoes occurred as forecast yesterday evening in northern Kansas. Fortunately, they missed major population areas. Looks like we are going to have four more days of violent storms.


Tornado risk map. Five percent is the significant threshold. Note this includes Chicago and Detroit.

Thunderstorm-generated wind gusts of 58 mph or stronger. Fifteen percent is the significant threshold.

And, probability of 1" or larger hail. Hatched is a forecast of two inch or larger hail.


This is the combined probability map. Fifteen percent is the significant threshold.
I believe this forecast will be upgraded with time. It looks like it could be a big tornado day in some areas.

Again, these are combined probabilities.

This far out, the SPC is only forecasting areas with probabilities 30% or higher.


  1. Love your blog Mike!
    Just so I am clear, when you say 5% threshold...can you clarify what you mean by that?

  2. Yes: There is a 5% chance of a tornado touching down within 25 miles of any given point.


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