Thursday, August 29, 2019

Hurricane Dorian Update: 9:20pm Thursday

I wanted to provide a complete update on Dorian 
so you could hit the ground running in the morning. 

Unfortunately, the storm is strengthening this evening. Pressure has dropped to 973 mb (it was 986 at 5pm) and it appears winds are now up to 95 mph (up from 85 mph at 5pm). 

At 9pm, it is looking more organized on satellite than it did earlier in the day.

So, the Hurricane Center's forecast of a Cat 4 hurricane striking Florida looks like it will be correct. As to where, here is their latest forecast. Here is their 5pm (latest) forecast (white).
I have modified my landfall location forecast (red bars) slightly. The southern side remains at Miami. The northern edge has been moved south from St. Augustine to Daytona Beach.

M = major hurricane. Tornadoes and severe flooding are also likely in Florida with the storm.
The above is the NWS's rainfall amount forecast. However, I believe it is quite conservative. Some areas will receive 15" or more.

I believe it is entirely possible that evacuation orders could be issued Friday. 

You may want to prepare a "go kit" and make a hotel reservation tonight. I would recommend something north of Valdosta or Montgomery as a place to stay. If you choose to go west, you should at least go to Mississippi. 

Finally, as to the online nonsense that there is some big increase in major hurricanes striking Florida due to global warming: hurricanes are far less frequent in recent decades than they used to be. Please see graphic below.

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