Blue = tropical storm warning for Niihau and Kauai. Red is a hurricane warning for the western Hawaii Atoll but I'm unclear as to why that was issued so far west.  Considerable flooding with possible landslides are forecast for Kauai. I can't emphasize how dangerous the surf will be, especially on the south and west sides of each of the islands. 

The forecast is unchanged since earlier this morning (Hawaiian time). The storm is still expected to be a major hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Kauai and Niihau.  Here is the outlook for those two islands: Storm surge 1-3 feet. Dangerous, life-threatening surf, especially on the south and west beaches.  Flooding rains possible with as much as 10" of rain. The rains will begin Sunday afternoon and continue until midweek. Note: 10" also possible The Big Island.  Landslides possible. Note: it has been my experience that airlines sometimes cancel flights -- where cancellations are not necessary -- when dealing with hurricanes. It would not surprise me at all to see flights cancelled to Lihue, Kauai, before this is over. If you want to leave, I recommend you leave asap. 

There was a tornado Thursday in Detroit and the NWS provided about 30 minutes of advance warning. Congratulations on this outstanding performance!

Here is an updated forecast for the path of the center of Lowell. It has been moved slightly east and people on Kauai should pay very close attention to the latest forecasts. It appears clear that gusts of 50 mph or more will occur on Barking Sands and in other western areas of the island. Heavy rain is likely with a chance of flash flooding, especially on the south and west sides of the island.  On Kauai and all of the Hawaiian Islands dangerous, life-threatening surf is forecast to occur.  If I were on Kauai, I would be preparing for these conditions. 

Update at 5pm. No change in the path forecast. Reminder: dangerous surf and, on Kauai, heavy rains are possible.  Lowell is redeveloping into a Cat 5 hurricane but will weaken some when it comes closest to Hawaii. The good news is that the forecast shown below hasn't changed as of 11 am Hawaii time Friday. I reiterate:   Regardless of Lowell's exact path, there will be life-threatening high surf, especially on the south and southwest side of the islands. --- original 4:40am Hawaii time posting --- Some tentative good news this morning. Lowell is now forecast to move west of the primary Hawaii Islands, per the National Hurricane Center.  Regardless of Lowell's exact path, there will be life-threatening high surf, especially on the south and southwest side of the islands. This forecast is not the final word. A Hurricane Hunter plane will investigate the storm later today which should yield a high confidence forecast. 

I saw this and it brought a number of thoughts to mind.......... Before anyone thinks bringing these back is a good idea: I testified in a lawsuit by a mother against the State of Florida in Palm Beach in 1992. The girl, 4 years-old (older than the boy pictured), was standing in the front seat and was leaning on the dashboard.  A downburst stuck a construction site as the car was passing through it. It picked up a square road sign. The corner of the sign pierced the windshield and the child's skull. She died almost instantly. So, this type of 'restraint' is certainly insufficient.  Perhaps surprisingly given these facts, the jury found in favor of the mother. A downburst in 1991 was practically unforecastable and it would have been nearly impossible in the 70+mph winds for the crew to scurrying around gathering all of the signs (and the one that caused the injury was weighed down with sand bags).  Turns out that in Florida, and in many other states, there were  laws ...

The Island of Kauai and the Island of Niihau are now in the "cone of uncertainty" regarding major Hurricane Lowell. While this is a long way from a hurricane warning, I make two suggestions: If you are traveling to or from Hawaii, please consider this in your plans. If you live on Kauai or Niihau, please be thinking about preliminary preparations.  Regardless, there will be extreme, dangerous surf with this storm irrespective of whether a landfall occurs.