An Investigative Report © 2021 Mike Smith Enterprises, LLC Since Friday's horrific tornado outbreak, a great deal of criticism has been leveled at the management of the candle factory owned by the Mayfield Consumer Products Company (MCPC). Criticism is warranted because sheltering should be carried out whenever a tornado warning is issued for a given location.  But there is more to the story -- information that may help understand the thought process behind the decision not to shelter, or not to fully shelter, Friday evening when the violent EF-4 intensity tornado approached (I'm relying on the media on this topic). This was yet another situation demonstrating the urgent need to reform of the National Weather Service (NWS) and emergency management (EM) tornado warning processes across the nation. For those who are new to this blog, two of many other examples are here and here .  In 2005, the NWS switched from using counties for tornado warnings to polygons that project the pa...

Lots of interest in my second book during the past week. This review was posted at Amazon yesterday. By telling the story of the Joplin storm, I'm hoping it will lead to improvements in the warning system. Sirens  is a short, but gripping, read that emphasizes how important the warning system is to saving lives.

The map above is a smoothed presentation of yesterday's incredible winds. Outside of the mountains and foothills, the strongest winds were:  107 mph, Lamar, Colorado 100 mph, Russell, Kansas Here is a plot of tornadoes (red) and thunderstorm-generated winds of 60 mph or stronger.  If you compare these maps to the forecasts below, I think you'll agree they compare very well.

From Vaughn, NM.

Radar at 6:30pm.  Only one tornado warning for northern Iowa. The pink counties are still under a tornado watch.  The wind gusts of 100 mph or stronger have been reported in several locations.  Sparks flying from a blown over tractor-trailer.  Below is an image of this unprecedented storm at 4pm.  I have tweeted more than 100 storm warning bulletins today @usweatherexpert .  This will be the last blog update.

Please click to enlarge to see wind forecast from now until 6pm. Update: Wichita's Eisenhower National Airport clocked a gust of 64 mph at 1:03pm. The stronger winds are still to the west.  Update II:   84 mph gust in Dodge City at 1:15pm. Below is the 12:47p satellite.  The blowing dust can be seen in the textured blown pattern. It will follow the line of showers and thunderstorms -- the latter is the leading edge of the strongest winds. Tornado Watch For the Area in Pink  (click to enlarge).  The line of thunderstorms in northern Kansas will rapidly turn into tornadic storms. They will also cause wind gusts up to 100 mph. 

Breakdown of Wind Forecasts There will be widespread power failures and, where the winds are highest, structural damage. A 107 mph wind gust has already occurred at Lamar, in southeast Colorado.  In Colorado , wind gusts of 100+ are likely in and near Boulder,  Raton Pass and in the other areas in pink and white on the map.  There could be gusts to 90 mph elsewhere in the Denver Metro.  In Kansas , the area within the purple lines will see, in places, wind gusts to 80 mph. In the white areas, wind gusts of 90+ mph are possible.  Northeast of Kansas, please go here for the latest wind forecasts.  In this situation, rain is not our friends. If you see rain moving toward you on radar, that is an indication of the highest winds.  In Kansas and points northeast , the highest winds will occur after 11am CST. Take this time to bring in Christmas decorations, lawn furniture or anything else that can be blown about.  There will be widespread, and prolonge...