Here is the 18-hour rainfall ending at 5pm.  Unfortunately, rain continues to fall where heavy rains have already fallen. Radar 5:23pm.  Flash flooding will be a real danger across this area to 10pm, even in areas where the rain has stopped. Turn around, don't drown. Don't drive or walk into flooded water!!

Bottom line: Flooding will increase over northeast Kansas and the metro Kansas City area into tonight.  Remember: Turn around, don't drown. Do not walk or drive into flooded areas.  As of 12:50pm, the radar shows thunderstorms forming a "train" situation (the thunderstorms move over the same areas over and over like the boxcars move down the track) between the red arrows.  The amber polygons are areas already under flash flood warnings.  There is a large area of rain coming out of Oklahoma (purple arrow) that may hold together and reach this area late this afternoon or this evening, further increasing rainfall totals.  The latest "recurrence interval map" to 12:55pm depicts twelve hour rainfalls are reaching the "once in ten year" level (reds) with "once in five years" fairly common over the Flint Hills from Emporia to Ft. Riley. Heavy amounts have fallen in south Kansas City, also, with more in the way.  Some areas may receive 5" more i...

Ark-La-Tex Region Let's begin with a recap of the rainfall from last week, ending at 7am this morning. I have labeled the states as the state lines on this map are not as prominent as I would like. Click to enlarge. More than five inches (reds) have fallen across a broad area. Those rains have saturated the soil and have a number of rivers running high. The forecasted rainfall (below) through Friday shows 5 (orange) to 7-10" (amber). There is a small area of east-central Texas where more than ten inches is likely.  If these rains materialize, widespread flooding will occur. I urge you to prepare accordingly, especially if you live in a flood-prone area.  Kansas has received the most heavy and  widespread rains in at least a year. The map shows rains over the last four days.  The map below shows there is severe flooding  in the red-purple areas, including near Interstate 70 just east of Salina. Flooding is also developing on a more scattered basis in the Flint H...

Thunderstorms developing southwest of Wichita as of 7:13pm. Tornado Watch  for southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas. Severe Thunderstorm Watch  for the rest of Kansas west of the Flint Hills (above).  In both watches hail larger than 2" in diameter is forecasted along with thunderstorm-generated wind gusts to 70mph. The chance of tornadoes is higher in the tornado watch but in the severe thunderstorm watch "a tornado or two" (in the words of the NWS) is possible.  Please monitor the weather in these areas the rest of the evening. 

Rainfall for the 48 hours ending at noon. This is probably the most widespread and substantial rain across the state in 2021. More is on the way.  Seven day rainfall outlook valid beginning at 7pm this evening.

Apparently, the "experts" (I put it italics because I'm not sure that anyone is a true expert in forecasting space weather) were greatly surprised over the solar storm earlier this week.  See article here . There are a number of useful items in the comments.  We've talked about this too many times to count: if we have a major Carrington Event (named after a violent solar storm in 1859). If that would occur today, we would go back to 1860 without  the infrastructure of 1860. Deaths will be in the tens of millions -- conservatively.  Yet, the U.S. government worries about everything but the really important problems. 

Here is the rainfall for the 24 hours ending at 3pm CDT (click to enlarge): The small yellow areas are amounts of just over two inches.  The forecasted rainfall from 6pm this evening to 6pm Friday (21st) has been increased since we discussed this yesterday. The orange areas are more than five inches and the small amber areas (near the Red River and one in north Texas) are more than seven  inches. If these extensive, heavy rains develop as forecasted, there will be flooding in some locations.  If you live in a flood-prone area, I urge you to keep an eye on this weather situation.