Beginning in the north: Orange is a blizzard warning (meaning high confidence) and light green is a blizzard watch. Pink is a winter storm warning Blue is a winter storm advisory (lesser condition) Hunter green (northern MN) is a winter storm watch. Farther south. Magenta and light brown are high wind warnings for high wildfire danger.

One year ago today at this time, our meteorologists were preparing forecasts of tornadoes in the central High Plains. It was extremely unusual to be forecasting tornadoes that far northwest this late in the year. One of the things that added to our confidence was the superb forecast made by AccuWeather's high-resolution model. At left is the forecast we made for AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions' clients (red and purple lines). Along with the forecast are the actual rotation tracks of the powerful thunderstorms that produced the tornadoes. At right is the conventional forecast made by the government. The red dots are where tornadoes actually occurred. The forecast (colored areas) under-forecast the probability of tornadoes (using their technique, probabilities should have been as high as 45% near Liberal, Kansas) and put the highest probabilities too far south. I don't post this to criticize the government but to illustrate our added capabilities as a result of our model...

AccuWeather's exclusive blizzard index continues to indicate a dangerous blizzard over the northern Great Plains late in the week. The gray areas will have blizzard conditions. The red and purple areas will have a fierce blizzard. It is possible you will be snowed it. There is a serious chance that car will be stranded on roadways. Isolated power outages may occur. 11pm Thursday Evening 6am Friday 10am Friday Total Snowfall It is vital to note that because of the ground temperatures, some of the snow will melt, so the amounts forecast above may be high in terms of accumulation. However, there will be so much blowing and drifting, it may be hard to determine exactly how much fell. Bottom line:   Please prepare accordingly. 

An illuminating article here .

If you would like to see me present in person on the latest advances in weather forecasting or would like to purchase an autographed copy of my book ($20, sales tax included) for a holiday gift, come and join us Friday at the... Pachyderm Club of Wichita Ruffin Building, 9th Floor (Petroleum Club) Broadway and Douglas Downtown Wichita The Petroleum Club serves a wonderful buffet lunch for, I believe, $12 (biggest bargain around). I recommend arriving at 11:40.  See you then!!

Here is the latest snowfall amount forecast. Note: In the band from southwest of Fargo into central Ontario, there could be a few spots that get as much as 15" of snow. There will be very high winds with this storm. AccuWeather has complete details. Also, for my readers in the Great Lakes snow region (like Buffalo), there is the possibility that the Lake Effect Snow season may begin rather abruptly in 4-6 days.

I'll believe global warming is a crisis when the people  telling me it is a crisis start acting  like it is a crisis. -- Glenn Reynolds Every time I think we have received the summit of a very large universe of hypocrisy on global warming, I am unpleasantly surprised. I learned yesterday that the New York Times, already a huge source of global warming hypocrisy, just extended the hypocrisy mountain to the moon. The Times  frequently writes on the subject of global warming, including, last week : In the last three days, the NYT destroyed a forest trees to write four stories on this topic. Since the election, they have poured the criticism on Donald Trump. Their columnist, Nicholas Kristof, has written a number of over-the-top pieces about the supposed horrors of global warming, including storms like Katrina. So, of course, the NYT would be a paragon of a small carbon existence, right? Right? RIGHT? No, the hypocrisy of the NYT and its columnists ...