The SPC's 11:30am forecast is unchanged from earlier (see below) except they have taken the large hail area farther north into South Dakota. I'm concerned the area I've outlined below will have one or two supercell thunderstorms that could produce very large hail, damaging winds and, while conditions are not ideal for tornadoes, a tornado or two is possible. Note: This forecast does not apply to other areas, just southern Kansas.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center's outlook for this afternoon and evening shows the better chance of very large hail and damaging winds. The hatching means that there is a chance of hail 2" in diameter. The significant threshold is 15% (yellow) with the higher risk in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. The SPC's tornado outlook is 5% (the significant threshold for tornadoes). I personally believe the greater chance of a tornado or two is in the southern part of the tornado outlook. So, please pay attention to the weather if thunderstorms approach. For Tuesday and Tuesday night,  there is a good chance of a tornado outbreak along with hail and wind storms. The hatched lines indicate areas where violent tornadoes may occur.

This ad for Mother's Day caught my eye: Having been blessed with a terrific Mom, I wanted to learn more. Reading down, here is the rest of the ad: Wow, so this would be not only a good Mother's Day gift, but a special  Mother's Day gift?! Then, I'm all in. Now, what would she like? I know that she and Dad once rode from KC to LA on Santa Fe's Super Chief.  So, that's it! Now, don't tell my Mother!! She'll be so excited....

All of these, from the NWS, are very good ideas. I'll add two more. Keep a flashlight in your storm shelter. Be able to take family heirlooms into shelter with you.

The new week begins the 2016 tornado season in the Central Plains which has -- so far -- been unusually late and light up to this point. Sunday 4pm to 11:59pm The northern threat area (purple) is where I think thunderstorms will be more geographically widespread with large hail and damaging winds. I certainly don't rule out a tornado or two in that area.  The southern threat (red) is a forecaster's nightmare. It appears to me that there is a pretty good threat of 1, 2, 3, or so supercell thunderstorms developing and, if they do, they have a higher than average chance of a tornado. But, if temperatures stay warm 2 miles above the ground, no thunderstorms at all will develop.  Tuesday Afternoon through Pre-Dawn Wednesday AccuWeather's map (above) does a great job outlining the risk. There could be tornadoes over the entire red area with the highest risk in the dashed lines. It has been a very late start to the 2016 tornado season in the Central Plains....

I really like this article from Richard Muller, PhD . It, fairly, discusses the categories of people as they view the global warming problem. So, where do I fall in the list? Lukewarmists. They, too, stick to the science. They recognize there is a danger but feel it is uncertain. We should do something but it [must] be measured. We have [sufficient] time. Skeptics.  They know the science but are bothered by the exaggerators, and they point to serious flaws in the theory and data analysis. They get annoyed when the warmists ignore their complains, many of which are valid. This group includes auditors,  scientists who carefully check the analysis of others.  As defined here, I am probably 1/2 lukewarmer and 1/2 skeptic. There is nothing immediately catastrophic about global warming.

For late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening: Large hail and a tornado or two are likely in the yellow area.  Undoubtedly, if you have been following the weather recently, you know there is a serious threat of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Interestingly, this is the 25th anniversary of Wichita-Andover tornado. If you are planning to come to the commemoration, we planned the possibility of severe weather into our contingency plans from our very first session. There are basements at St. Vincent's,  the site of the ceremony, so don't worry about the weather.  There is also a possibility of severe weather Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Here is the forecast rainfall for the next seven days. A point of trivia: If this forecast is perfect, it will be the wettest April in Dodge City history. With the exception of New Mexico, this storm will wipe out any drought in the central third of the United States.