There is a risk of tornadoes Saturday and Saturday night, especially from the I-35 corridor and points east.

Probability of six inches or more of snow between now and 6am Saturday.

Granddad still hasn't opened his Christmas gifts so he asked me to do a quick update. Dangerous flooding is still likely from the Ozarks to northeast Texas. The heavy rain will start around sunrise Saturday. The maroon counties are flash flood warnings. The winter storm warning in the northern Plains has been expanded (pink). Granddad will update on the weekend winter storm when all of the new data is in -- and, when he has opened his gifts!!

I'm sorry to report that there is a tornado threat again today. There is already a tornado warning in effect. If you live in the brown-tinted area, please keep an eye on the weather today!

To all of our readers, Mindy and I would like to wish you the most merry of Christmases. We know it is an honor to spend some of your day with us and thank you for giving us the precious resource of your time and attention.

I'll probably regret writing these words but I am starting to have a little bit of confidence in the forecast for the weekend blizzard. Here is the accumulation forecast for 6am Sunday: To the southwest of the line winds will be gusting to 35-40 mph dropping visibility and making travel conditions very hazardous.  Here is the forecast for 6pm Sunday: Winds will still be gusting to 30-35 mph throughout the area at this time. Accumulations will be up to 15" in eastern New Mexico and, by that time, 6" or so along the Kansas-Oklahoma border. About that time, the pattern of heaviest snow accumulation should turn north into central Kansas.  The longer-range statistical guidance seems to have come into line with my thinking. Below is the guidance from 6pm Sunday to 6pm Monday. It is forecasting the likelihood of 3 inches or more of snow. There will be considerable drifting of snow and roads will be hazardous.  There is a smaller storm over the norther...

Flooding is in progress in the Southeast. Severe flooding has been reported in some of the maroon-shaded areas. In the Central U.S., a severe flood threat exists from southeast Oklahoma to the Ozarks. Other flooding is likely in the orange areas. The rain is forecast to begin Friday night and extend into Monday.