Remember: the blue winter storm watches mean a winter storm may  occur. The exact path is unknown at this time. However, it would be advisable to make preliminary preparations.

A quick note now that the December, 2013, temperatures are in. For apples-to-apples consistency, I use the British HADCRUT3 data (which is the metric used by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]). I don't cherry-pick data. I always use HADCRUT unless stated otherwise. As you can see, temperatures peaked in 1998 and have been flat since. HADCRUT and GISS (the two primary land-based metrics) and UAH and RSS (the satellite-based metrics) are combined into a single metric by the very useful website Wood For Trees . Here is the combined index: So, no matter how you look at it, "global warming" stopped more than a decade and a half ago. There have been various attempts to redefine global warming through various other indicia, ocean heat content, etc. I'm not going to go into all of those, especially some of them are merely attempts to move the goalposts. The HADCRUT data is the one upon which the IPCC based its forecasts. Those forecasts o...

There is a good chance that ice and snow will fall from Texas to South Carolina. click to enlarge This map is the probability  of one inch or more of snow falling over the next 72 hours. Note there seem to be two paths. That, I believe, is because the models cannot agree on a path at this time. There is a possibility of an ice storm from roughly southern Georgia to southeast South Carolina. I urge people in that area to monitor the situation closely. If you need to travel, it would be better to leave before the precipitation starts falling.  Of course, I'll continue to follow the situation and post updates.

Can't resist posting: There may be a winter storm from Texas along I-10 to northern Florida the first half of the week. Still working on that forecast. The Midwest cold wave is still on track.

Cessna Citation, made in Wichita like so many other aircraft. …the doctor's office has copies of Flying  and Aviation Week  in the magazine rack.

Below, I wrote about the increasing likelihood of a major pattern change across North America . The National Weather Service is apparently seeing the same things as I. Here is their precipitation outlook for Jan. 31 to February 4. A = above normal precipitation. And, here is the outlook for February 2 to 8. The NWS says "below normal" rainfall in California. I am more optimistic. I believe there will be rain in California during this period (probably light) with a turn to significant rain in California the 10th through the 20th. Keep your fingers crossed!

Update 5:43pm. State of Emergency declared in Wisconsin due to cold wave and propane shortage. Forecast low temperatures (not wind chills) expected to be colder than -15° in much of the state. ORIGINAL POSTING: AccuWeather Regional Radar at 4:59pm CST: Blue is where the heavier snow is now falling. It is moving southeast and is expected to reach Chicago around 3am Sunday. Orange is the blizzard warning now in effect. Pink is a winter storm warning. The periwinkle color is a wind chill warning as wind chills are expected go lower than -40° on Monday morning! While the cold is a threat to health, Chicago is expecting 2 to 5 inches with drifting and blowing snow. The blues are travel advisories for snow and the hunter green is a winter storm watch. Browns are high wind warnings (without precipitation). Extreme cold will spread throughout the Midwest Sunday night and Monday. Some suggestions: If your car's battery is questionable, now would be a good time to replace i...